Ukraine · resolved market
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb553a25b7670031fc7cf095e79525406f10b3cf66e793255836fc1fb95bf8f7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 4c | 26,565$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…2619backed Yes | 5c | 6,952$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc2…64debacked Yes | 6c | 3,261$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,018$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2628…2463backed Yes | 3c | 1,843$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c8…2f91backed Yes | 3c | 1,803$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…f85fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,282$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,181$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…7320backed Yes | 28c | 1,101$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…7709backed Yes | 3c | 1,020$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 6c | 999.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa036…1f43backed Yes | 3c | 988$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…40c5backed Yes | 3c | 927$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…608fbacked Yes | 3c | 914$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f35…b8a9backed Yes | 3c | 905$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…6759backed Yes | 3c | 883$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5be…b83bbacked Yes | 3c | 749$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…e666backed Yes | 3c | 717.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33de…a7c6backed Yes | 2c | 714.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cb…1e00backed Yes | 3c | 709$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 6c | 642.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 587.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…1766backed Yes | 9c | 583.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +176.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…03f1backed Yes | 7c | 500.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ea…3955backed Yes | 3c | 349.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2c…89e5backed Yes | 6c | 336.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…d14fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 7c | 291.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…ee54backed Yes | 7c | 269.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2a…b339backed Yes | 8c | 215.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 211$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb71f…2a75backed Yes | 12c | 200.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 171.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9f…36e1backed Yes | 7c | 165.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 59c | 152.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yes | 11c | 136.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c89…0177backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 56c | 60.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russian strike on Poland by June 30?this page
- Russian strike on Poland by December 31?No won
- Russian strike on Poland by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.