Ukraine · resolved market
Russian strike on Poland by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc202126ae7b6a04608fefbde73290fd2037b1b98191754c708807b6a3329cca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 7c | 31,516$2,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,235.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,079$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…d492backed Yes | 6c | 9,084$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,724$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 4,820$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 6c | 3,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.02 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 2,845$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…5d61backed Yes | 12c | 1,895$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,861$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 12c | 1,222$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.2 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 78c | 1,142$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.02 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e5…dd13backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 2c | 937.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…13cdbacked Yes | 24c | 843.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 832.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0e…10cebacked Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b95…da5fbacked Yes | 5c | 640$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…aceebacked Yes | 9c | 479.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed6f…10abbacked Yes | 2c | 474.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 402.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 12c | 399.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 7c | 350$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…9ee7backed Yes | 6c | 333.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 16c | 332.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…3d9fbacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 5c | 273.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe59…32c2backed Yes | 9c | 234.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…dd17backed Yes | 12c | 215.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes | 13c | 212.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 10c | 195.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…7808backed Yes | 12c | 161.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462b…f246backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…d426backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 15c | 97.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russian strike on Poland by December 31?this page
- Russian strike on Poland by June 30?No won
- Russian strike on Poland by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.