TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0f87…1ff2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 55 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3237.5%12 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+239.9%+$87.23
Israel withdraws from Syria in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.48
Iran Nuke in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$11.25
Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+155.1%+$46.54
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+279.6%+$57.52
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+70.4%+$10.56
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.33
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
Another Israel strike on Damascus by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Israel strike Syria on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.47
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.2
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+73.6%+$140.06
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+119.1%+$38.42
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.98
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.73
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+158.1%+$60.22
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+155.5%+$86.13
Will Russia capture any territory in Lyman by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+97.7%+$14.2
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12.63
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.28
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.02
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.55
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+182.7%+$77.96
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$21.07
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.41
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+139.3%+$18.1
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+117.5%+$19.55
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+162.6%+$21.24
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+154.7%+$20.54
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+171.6%+$21.37
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.74
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.61
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.88
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.8
Will Putin meet with Trump before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69.42
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$84.45
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.05
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.34
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$8.24
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.24
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$12.42
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Supreme Court unblocks Alien Enemies Act?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$168.67
Trump exits Iran nuclear negotiations before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$29.25
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.2
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+175.9%+$26.21
Another US military action against Iran by Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.64
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+73.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+66.6%+$8.1
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+546.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+546.2%+$63.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+94.6%+$14.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
5kt meteor strike in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.