Middle East · resolved market
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb198559fccb50791fb2d323f72ef3e209f68b257bf160f72ebaa32aec8aaa354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $213,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 17c | 6,964$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.34 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 22c | 5,678$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.42 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,721$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,946$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.39 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…db63backed Yes | 12c | 3,887$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 20c | 3,781$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.05 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 16c | 3,686$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.95 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 24c | 3,655$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…23fabacked Yes | 5c | 3,536$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 78c | 3,250$2,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,157$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 13c | 2,723$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.07 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed Yes | 28c | 2,698$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 15c | 2,657$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.2 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…35e5backed Yes | 23c | 2,459$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…faaabacked Yes | 21c | 2,400$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…c09fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,171$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 7c | 2,096$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.9 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.19 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f14…f009backed Yes | 12c | 1,984$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…ec8fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,960$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 10c | 1,891$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.02 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 1,698$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.74 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 14c | 1,636$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.38 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 27c | 1,604$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…8b69backed Yes | 18c | 1,598$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…cc1fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,588$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 17c | 1,500$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.41 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 11c | 1,483$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.64 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 68c | 1,441$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.23 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 23c | 1,378$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.23 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 14c | 1,338$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 22c | 1,216$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.28 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,209$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,206$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 12c | 1,197$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,125$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,109$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.01 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe448…f5cbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,041$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d7…c662backed Yes | 43c | 1,021$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.61 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 971.92$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked No | 70c | 923$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 4c | 914.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…3ccbbacked Yes | 16c | 876.22$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1148…b5f4backed Yes | 12c | 855.1$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…019cbacked Yes | 12c | 824.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 817.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…5201backed Yes | 13c | 799.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 19c | 788.51$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.55 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 22c | 757.55$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.66 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…964dbacked Yes | 5c | 752.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 9c | 747.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871d…392fbacked Yes | 19c | 673.13$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 22c | 665.46$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.16 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 4c | 663.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 7c | 575.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 16c | 557.94$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 11c | 544.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 10c | 527.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 523$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 520.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…db42backed No | 78c | 511.48$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…61fbbacked Yes | 12c | 510.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 65c | 500$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.9 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…8c6fbacked Yes | 21c | 487.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 15c | 473.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 15c | 456.22$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 80c | 450$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5daa…1a37backed Yes | 24c | 424.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 9c | 417.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 18c | 416.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…525abacked Yes | 16c | 404.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 31c | 400$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…558fbacked Yes | 12c | 388.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…f94bbacked Yes | 13c | 370.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d9…b24bbacked Yes | 14c | 365.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 13c | 365$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 26c | 358.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…462dbacked Yes | 28c | 356.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 22c | 344.91$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…182cbacked Yes | 15c | 339$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 16c | 333$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 12c | 331.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…1ff2backed Yes | 7c | 295.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 35c | 289.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…181abacked Yes | 5c | 285.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…04f5backed Yes | 24c | 282.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 15c | 277.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 77c | 275$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 35c | 253.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1277…13d8backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 75c | 239.18$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.