TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x93da…558f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
86
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST3855.3%21 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Yemen by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.69
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+39.5%+$25.26
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.08
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.1%+$92.9
Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+25%+$5.5
Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.6
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+46.2%+$70.82
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+115.7%+$20.85
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+372.5%+$68.98
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.61
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+86.8%+$118.48
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+54.2%+$9.72
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$38.83
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+45.2%+$25.56
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+43.3%+$12.28
Houthi strike on Israel by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+32.1%+$58.13
Israel strike on Yemen by September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.75
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+52.6%+$17.55
Israel strikes Syria by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.98
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$230.78
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36.8%+$5.53
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.8%+$5.07
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$9.43
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+37.6%+$106.63
Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?backed Gaza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+45.2%+$10.86
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+28.6%+$31.69
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+53.2%+$187.83
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$3.1
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$8.99
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$5.27
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.29
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.31
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+25.1%+$91.33
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+44%+$90.56
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+87.5%+$136.14
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$106
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.34
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT+40.7%+$19.45
Will Trump call Putin “strong” on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$124.4
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+73.2%+$12.71
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+38.5%+$42.68
All 22 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$7.47
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.39
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+38.8%+$7.22
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+36.7%+$5.51
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+61.9%+$9.29
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.72
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+60.4%+$8.02
50% India tariff in effect by August 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$12.72
US military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+87%+$34.79
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+72.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+96.1%+$15.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+65.1%+$23.42
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.