TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$424,258
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$500,103

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,258 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed No2c12,170$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.026291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes73c9,227$6,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,535.898864.8%57 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x978d…fe14backed No2c4,474$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf4…e031backed No3c4,352$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8676…79abbacked No2c4,178$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes80c4,116$3,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.445554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No4c4,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606627.3%18 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No2c3,503$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6215615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf311…fe1bbacked No16c3,253$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.37130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf305…2ca7backed No16c3,186$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-80%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No6c3,150$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2047611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeec0…37c1backed No6c2,457$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd1…1a53backed No1c2,312$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No10c2,241$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.5812839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes73c2,190$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.554969.4%34 W · 15 L+9.0wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0ca9…e423backed No2c2,183$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-79.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8af9…c3e8backed No6c2,181$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1384812.5%6 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes73c2,055$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.424050%20 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f6…bde2backed No6c1,759$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No2c1,738$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0857426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked No23c1,506$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.837238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No5c1,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ea3…5166backed No3c1,429$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No12c1,193$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked No19c1,170$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.289041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No30c1,150$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503060%18 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No3c1,132$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.526010%6 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa8…f6bfbacked No6c1,113$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.35714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked Yes76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e8…ab20backed No11c999.97$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes69c879.12$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.6324315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2688…cb00backed Yes71c746.9$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.877536%27 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes78c704.35$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.954641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2d…a101backed No31c652.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6bd…6503backed No2c625.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed Yes69c608.58$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.731154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes72c603.3$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.052075%15 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed No13c599.97$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No3c585.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.375223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe03d…189abacked Yes70c538.88$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.891675%12 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56a1…7b89backed No3c538.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbe…4c2bbacked No2c535.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed No14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked No31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Yes76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1203050%15 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No4c493$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.63411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes68c480$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.45653.6%30 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed No14c460$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.46428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes68c450$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1458754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca52…0cdfbacked No13c446.6$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9411346%52 W · 61 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes79c444$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.245448.1%26 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3ab…300abacked No15c440$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x749f…9501backed Yes76c429.4$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.946232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes75c394$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.829915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe870…6bf8backed Yes79c360.1$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.621163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No5c303$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.222740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3896…ece6backed No19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574247.6%20 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6312636.5%46 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7272…a67dbacked No5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes66c300$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1034422.7%10 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked Yes72c270$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-76.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed No5c263.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.181625%4 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe9b…5662backed No4c253.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd30…7627backed No9c233.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70a6…86b7backed No13c230$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d9…c24fbacked No18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed No6c216.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-68.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e5…f59ebacked Yes68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648100%8 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9607…8140backed No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7478…4003backed Yes75c199.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.124866.7%32 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf263…d065backed No15c195.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No28c195$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1372935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0884…ab9cbacked Yes67c165.39$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.69771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0af…e499backed Yes73c164.53$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.423100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf129…b327backed Yes78c154.84$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.84560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid+20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb74…bcb4backed Yes68c147.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+43%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed Yes80c143.36$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.352268.2%15 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1589…a55fbacked Yes72c138.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.471080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No20c138.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4825731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes71c135$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3910933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11d9…8548backed No16c131.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes71c124.79$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4230127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x104f…178ebacked Yes74c121.57$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0388…ef11backed No14c105.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143735.1%13 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b5…8b70backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+17.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd958…6f9ebacked No11c95.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9bed…c48ebacked Yes76c89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f66…5c42backed No19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe424…0d1abacked Yes68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.531181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick57cpaid+29.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3331…e256backed Yes68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.531154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+132.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x679c…f8ddbacked Yes66c69.77$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.761643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2482…06bcbacked No18c61.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a9…8a2cbacked No31c56.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No25c56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1440712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdacb…af2bbacked Yes73c54.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No32c52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.642646.2%12 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.