AI · resolved market
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e1ec8877ef12158ebdcad27ee4639121ac84031379b0b97538fcd5d9f7d80b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $424,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $500,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 12,170$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.02 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 73c | 9,227$6,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,535.89 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…fe14backed No | 2c | 4,474$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…e031backed No | 3c | 4,352$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8676…79abbacked No | 2c | 4,178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 80c | 4,116$3,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.44 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 3,503$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked No | 16c | 3,253$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.37 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…2ca7backed No | 16c | 3,186$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 6c | 3,150$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec0…37c1backed No | 6c | 2,457$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd1…1a53backed No | 1c | 2,312$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 10c | 2,241$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.58 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 73c | 2,190$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.55 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca9…e423backed No | 2c | 2,183$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed No | 6c | 2,181$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 73c | 2,055$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.42 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f6…bde2backed No | 6c | 1,759$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 1,738$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 23c | 1,506$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.83 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…5166backed No | 3c | 1,429$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 1,193$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 19c | 1,170$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.28 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 30c | 1,150$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 3c | 1,132$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…f6bfbacked No | 6c | 1,113$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed No | 11c | 999.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 69c | 879.12$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.63 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 71c | 746.9$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.87 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 78c | 704.35$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.95 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…a101backed No | 31c | 652.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…6503backed No | 2c | 625.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…d224backed Yes | 69c | 608.58$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes | 72c | 603.3$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.05 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 13c | 599.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 3c | 585.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked Yes | 70c | 538.88$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.89 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56a1…7b89backed No | 3c | 538.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbe…4c2bbacked No | 2c | 535.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed No | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked No | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 4c | 493$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 68c | 480$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.4 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed No | 14c | 460$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 68c | 450$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 13c | 446.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 79c | 444$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ab…300abacked No | 15c | 440$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 76c | 429.4$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.94 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 75c | 394$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…6bf8backed Yes | 79c | 360.1$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 5c | 303$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…a67dbacked No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 66c | 300$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 72c | 270$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 5c | 263.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…5662backed No | 4c | 253.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…7627backed No | 9c | 233.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…86b7backed No | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…c24fbacked No | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed No | 6c | 216.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e5…f59ebacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9607…8140backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed Yes | 75c | 199.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…d065backed No | 15c | 195.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 195$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0884…ab9cbacked Yes | 67c | 165.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0af…e499backed Yes | 73c | 164.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…b327backed Yes | 78c | 154.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…bcb4backed Yes | 68c | 147.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed Yes | 80c | 143.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…a55fbacked Yes | 72c | 138.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 138.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 71c | 135$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d9…8548backed No | 16c | 131.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 71c | 124.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…178ebacked Yes | 74c | 121.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0388…ef11backed No | 14c | 105.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b5…8b70backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd958…6f9ebacked No | 11c | 95.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c48ebacked Yes | 76c | 89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f66…5c42backed No | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3331…e256backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…f8ddbacked Yes | 66c | 69.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…06bcbacked No | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…8a2cbacked No | 31c | 56.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdacb…af2bbacked Yes | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 32c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.