AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf2846e2dc6379a3713b552961a3072fbb38c1d793d0ed247dd82e94310d8b71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $485,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 84,384$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.69 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…9c25backed Yes | 1c | 30,417$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…83d5backed Yes | 1c | 22,423$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.73 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…bf17backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…d10dbacked Yes | 1c | 18,957$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 16,829$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 2c | 14,175$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.97 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca9…e423backed Yes | 2c | 13,388$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 12,376$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 11,751$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4399…789cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,379$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…7e87backed Yes | 0c | 10,725$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 1c | 9,516$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.06 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…53c9backed Yes | 1c | 8,829$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 8,720$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…37aabacked Yes | 0c | 7,587$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2874…c2e7backed Yes | 1c | 7,294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,880$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…2ca7backed Yes | 3c | 5,810$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5423…8b45backed Yes | 0c | 5,182$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 5,033$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…2966backed Yes | 3c | 5,014$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd1…1a53backed Yes | 0c | 4,676$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…1befbacked Yes | 0c | 4,150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,033$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…9c75backed Yes | 3c | 3,969$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…da49backed Yes | 3c | 3,440$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1b…7552backed Yes | 2c | 3,239$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 2c | 3,193$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…6e85backed Yes | 4c | 2,849$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…4190backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,436$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…4279backed Yes | 1c | 2,137$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc413…d1a7backed Yes | 3c | 1,963$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,391$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f85…8e0abacked Yes | 1c | 1,362$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…9375backed Yes | 3c | 1,326$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,255$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…5b66backed Yes | 2c | 1,213$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…8805backed Yes | 1c | 1,210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb53…edd1backed Yes | 1c | 1,150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…f4c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbe…4c2bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,007$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…e349backed Yes | 1c | 909.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Yes | 2c | 842.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6efd…ccb0backed Yes | 2c | 774.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Yes | 2c | 640.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…fcc5backed Yes | 3c | 429.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.