TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9076…8805

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2025%5 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.84
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.7
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+339.6%+$154.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$24.5
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69.72
Iran Nuke in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.69
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$150.7
Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Israel strikes Iran before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.2
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+41.3%+$49.78
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$46.05
Israel strikes Syria by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+271.9%+$54.37
Another Israel strike on Yemen by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
US strikes Yemen before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$16.24
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.3
All 20 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.9
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$56.05
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Russia capture Yampil' by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.6
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$19.6
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$26.4
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+62.6%+$24.44
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$122
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$416.38
Will Russia capture Udachne by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+48.7%+$39.85
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+51%+$74.94
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.