TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Iran before September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$600,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$590,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $600,435 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9419…3aa4backed Yes13c60,098$8,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,092.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238a…1574backed Yes7c39,689$2,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,962911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-76.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes2c30,371$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.7843212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes3c21,084$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.4719531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f5…9663backed Yes8c20,000$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.97240%0 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb7f…1db2backed Yes17c17,075$2,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,948.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf811…1792backed Yes4c16,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes4c13,930$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.26468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No74c12,950$9,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,311.6710150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes6c11,792$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.1523525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes8c10,319$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.4220823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes8c6,291$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484515.9%3 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-81.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes5c5,650$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes8c5,409$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4282850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8c39…6bbcbacked Yes6c5,372$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes10c5,347$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.0219639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa891…6ed8backed Yes2c5,053$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20673%2 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003625%9 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes6c4,944$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.6617018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b54…cb72backed Yes12c4,248$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.761723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69cb…2320backed Yes17c3,569$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b4d…01c7backed Yes3c3,486$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.04812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes10c3,445$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.578951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c3,219$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.672078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1141…55b1backed Yes6c3,056$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.22015%3 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a3…9e5cbacked Yes24c3,010$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.0270%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes2c3,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6614520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes10c2,951$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.233823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes9c2,838$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4440828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes26c2,659$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.763619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x270c…f377backed Yes18c2,555$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.866541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7256…de57backed Yes10c2,530$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-53.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9048…6fddbacked Yes4c2,430$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b94…1cc5backed Yes13c2,346$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.2490%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ad8…7559backed Yes7c2,129$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Yes10c2,059$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No72c2,019$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.247142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6734…fd07backed Yes9c1,888$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.83713.5%5 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,783$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.551,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed Yes15c1,713$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x426e…5922backed Yes2c1,677$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.192213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes4c1,653$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.551879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No74c1,525$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.7416739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed No80c1,510$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.642055%11 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x982e…39f3backed Yes10c1,504$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes12c1,411$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1715324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes24c1,403$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.86036.7%22 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e1f…ba52backed Yes2c1,400$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa20a…ed3abacked Yes11c1,355$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14970%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e7…d29ebacked Yes28c1,235$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.09137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-87.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd49f…0874backed Yes9c1,222$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes17c1,203$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.87190%0 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes12c1,200$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1498617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ed7…5f67backed Yes19c1,200$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.031346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+46.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd450…27cfbacked Yes9c1,170$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes12c1,162$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.44010%4 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-71.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes4c1,148$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.148827.3%24 W · 64 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0fe…a41abacked Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27a0…186fbacked Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9244…606cbacked Yes6c1,100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed No67c1,091$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3572642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a6…762ebacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb117…8f3abacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e53…ba80backed Yes14c983.33$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Yes2c980$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.582634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes4c976$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.448923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes11c950$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4512333.3%41 W · 82 L+13.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes25c920$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2305425.9%14 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26e9…4a51backed Yes8c892$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.361855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a83…b4dcbacked Yes10c888.65$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2c…15a9backed Yes13c871.09$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.563040%12 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+127.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe93a…a522backed Yes3c853.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f71…1016backed Yes5c850$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.993132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76c3…5152backed Yes24c836.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No72c760.67$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.6122262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes27c749.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1911537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6301…f70dbacked Yes10c735.79$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ee…a9dbbacked Yes3c706.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6225…bc21backed Yes7c699.96$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes8c652.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5f…0ce4backed Yes16c617.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+152.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x139d…fe64backed Yes14c613.82$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.736615.2%10 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x891f…60c2backed Yes4c611.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No73c591.71$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.63438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-38.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5516…92d1backed Yes11c564.95$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes10c550$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5514420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No62c523.21$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.297145.1%32 W · 39 L-8.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-29.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbea…19f4backed Yes2c522.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes9c514.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3720235.6%72 W · 130 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd393…4d6cbacked Yes31c506.02$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x696e…74e8backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401040%4 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ca3…d3c8backed No56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+67.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455219.2%10 W · 42 L-12.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-62.8%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f38…29cfbacked Yes28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes27c499.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1352035%7 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes27c468.98$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.625248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe371…d32ebacked Yes9c450.09$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.513716.2%6 W · 31 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-66.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.