TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$149,465
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,465 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32d1…b949backed Yes17c8,734$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.964010%4 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No79c7,567$5,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.5324258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes8c7,155$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.3625528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No78c6,642$5,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.6923435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes25c6,041$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.324060%24 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cdc…27bebacked Yes20c5,779$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.55714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No75c5,337$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.923560%21 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x833a…adecbacked Yes23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes7c4,592$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.6425311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf989…47ccbacked No75c3,980$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.23284.4%27 W · 5 L+9.1wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+63.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes23c3,470$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.0913230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc91e…7246backed No66c3,257$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.53560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes24c3,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7302123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d7…6932backed Yes34c2,956$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-56.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes21c2,629$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5523863.2%24 W · 14 L+5.8wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c2,440$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.69387.9%3 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes23c2,200$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5042420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes28c1,946$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.731428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes14c1,774$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22bd…ad18backed Yes12c1,551$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No75c1,248$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.3810241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9188…f4efbacked Yes34c1,227$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.61540%6 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+29.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f33…0479backed Yes4c1,206$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.261338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed No67c1,149$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.234511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No76c1,100$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.424358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No71c1,100$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32014750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes7c1,061$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.616028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10429.5%4 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed No61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3902759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x039e…c5e0backed Yes11c929.82$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.051030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e83…44babacked No76c890.97$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x576c…b532backed No67c886.49$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.29955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b6d…4747backed Yes30c836.05$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5674…15c2backed Yes30c788.44$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes28c768.33$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.194746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed No72c734.68$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…af9bbacked Yes29c704.52$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.251625%4 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes16c696.43$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2930837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No77c649.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.8914147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No69c607.62$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.4521426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes31c581.25$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9610812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No71c568.87$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.339475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No64c529.52$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.278660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96da…68b6backed Yes23c522.73$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.461662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+60.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20014920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1599…f75abacked Yes26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed No71c499.69$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.91650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No52c465.75$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.5611647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes20c455.06$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.011618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-62.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5dda…649cbacked Yes10c437$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.73821.1%8 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes24c428.63$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.731118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-70.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcab…4821backed Yes43c423.55$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c423$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.15704.3%3 W · 67 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8df…3bc5backed No77c420.14$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.63580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No74c400$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No72c367.38$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1049932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed No78c364.37$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.161080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd67f…70febacked Yes28c361.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.271233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed No79c353.95$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.869257.6%53 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8545…ada5backed Yes29c350.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+85.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6417…d43ebacked Yes37c332.89$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-41%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No67c332.68$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0226238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaef5…5ee2backed Yes27c324$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.481618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No60c320.49$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.036949.3%34 W · 35 L+9.8wins+0.14per pick35cpaid+35.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes11c312.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6420026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No78c304.11$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.755479.6%43 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de9…7abebacked Yes29c299.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No68c296.26$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4711542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd042…7198backed No63c291$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.452166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No73c288.81$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.982060%12 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7783…9245backed Yes22c281.46$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bfb…8445backed Yes27c266.67$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No61c260.61$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.537241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4535…d7a1backed No77c233.77$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.77862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed Yes7c225.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.782450%12 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb7b…5a7cbacked No77c225.14$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.785100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes15c210$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.541736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x247d…7d27backed Yes32c189.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x244a…623abacked Yes28c175.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc670…dd59backed Yes29c174.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48dc…8c54backed Yes9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63b4…7e30backed No78c166.67$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.67683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes34c166$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1226318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ede…a9f2backed Yes29c165$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No66c151.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.83458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No62c149.99$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes26c141.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.861020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x429a…77fbbacked No71c140$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.64052.5%21 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94a2…086ebacked Yes36c126.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick41cpaid-49.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef0b…8996backed Yes28c123.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-75.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x896f…b561backed Yes17c120.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ac…091ebacked No74c120$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c117.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.785327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes33c111$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.722321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes20c109.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3239429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.