Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3287e342c4a43045d0c27d1aec1df2661e4cd1d4268ce4468b04cc23f6eae4e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $277,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 359 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 50c | 22,781$11,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,439.32 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed Yes | 78c | 15,660$12,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,478.17 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 24c | 12,000$2,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,937 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 55c | 10,802$5,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,857.9 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 65c | 10,003$6,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,468.97 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 76c | 7,529$5,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 46c | 6,436$2,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,472.87 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 30c | 6,069$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.44 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4adb…02fcbacked Yes | 70c | 5,750$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 25c | 5,464$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.24 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 72c | 5,242$3,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.72 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 49c | 5,110$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.88 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5b…4ababacked No | 5c | 4,557$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 35c | 4,340$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.06 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 47c | 3,608$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.77 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…a808backed Yes | 64c | 2,872$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 59c | 2,760$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.73 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 34c | 2,594$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.32 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…ff23backed Yes | 75c | 2,500$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,379$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed No | 39c | 2,233$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 2,176$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.35 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 26c | 2,057$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.5 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…deb6backed No | 22c | 2,009$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.17 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…666ebacked Yes | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…f7a8backed Yes | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…5a85backed No | 30c | 1,922$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.78 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,833$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.33 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…628dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…4f7cbacked No | 30c | 1,767$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked Yes | 79c | 1,653$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.24 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked No | 28c | 1,639$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 50c | 1,628$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.27 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…c877backed No | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef83…96ecbacked No | 32c | 1,539$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 34c | 1,451$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 25c | 1,438$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.39 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 61c | 1,388$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.09 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 23c | 1,369$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.94 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 46c | 1,356$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.49 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 31c | 1,350$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.99 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 63c | 1,318$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.49 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…e4fbbacked Yes | 78c | 1,285$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked No | 24c | 1,281$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 74c | 1,196$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.9 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…81c3backed Yes | 73c | 1,183$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.37 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 28c | 1,151$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.76 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 30c | 1,049$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.27 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 32c | 1,047$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.92 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 24c | 1,041$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.46 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f2…212ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…4fddbacked Yes | 71c | 988.26$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes | 69c | 986.32$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed No | 24c | 984.89$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.67 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 53c | 970$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.4 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…1f04backed Yes | 72c | 962.76$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.49 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…7e88backed Yes | 77c | 934.2$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.32 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 908.98$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.01 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…f785backed No | 35c | 900$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…801cbacked No | 25c | 900$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 67c | 899.31$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.79 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 59c | 897.83$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.4 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 36c | 826.39$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…e65cbacked No | 32c | 819.8$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 26c | 817.13$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed No | 37c | 802.01$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…a44bbacked No | 25c | 801$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 67c | 794.63$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.13 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 25c | 791.6$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.33 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 38c | 788.36$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.58 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…28f9backed Yes | 64c | 766.29$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde89…e378backed Yes | 64c | 697.12$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 36c | 695.08$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.71 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 72c | 692.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.09 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…28d1backed No | 43c | 682.24$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.38 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 21c | 675.13$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 66c | 674.61$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.18 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 69c | 674.51$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.41 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…d704backed No | 44c | 674.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 41c | 660.12$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.46 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 29c | 626.2$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…7632backed Yes | 71c | 620.86$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 38c | 599.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…d884backed Yes | 74c | 599.99$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 47c | 599.98$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.59 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 30c | 595.56$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.67 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…3424backed No | 27c | 587.11$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 32c | 574.38$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.8 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1312…cf45backed No | 38c | 572.05$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 47c | 558.57$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.63 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 30c | 537.73$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.19 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 49c | 518.09$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.04 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 60c | 514.71$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.51 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed No | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…afe2backed No | 27c | 512.79$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 23c | 502.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 21?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 7?No won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.