TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$277,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$274,441

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 359 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fe7…4f20backed No50c22,781$11,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,439.3223435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…5839backed Yes78c15,660$12,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,478.171560%9 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No24c12,000$2,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,93711050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes55c10,802$5,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,857.915029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes65c10,003$6,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,468.9711839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes76c7,529$5,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.112250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes46c6,436$2,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,472.875143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1410…a67dbacked No30c6,069$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.443644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4adb…02fcbacked Yes70c5,750$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No25c5,464$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.2425311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x169a…c46abacked Yes72c5,242$3,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.722748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No49c5,110$2,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,503.882475%18 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe5b…4ababacked No5c4,557$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.17425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No35c4,340$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.0612547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes47c3,608$1,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.7735341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f02…a808backed Yes64c2,872$1,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes59c2,760$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.737848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No34c2,594$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.329962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf02f…ff23backed Yes75c2,500$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-77.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c2,379$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.545327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ef9…7e63backed No39c2,233$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.98850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No30c2,176$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.3530837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No26c2,057$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.514456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b21…deb6backed No22c2,009$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.171947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdae6…666ebacked Yes54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd547…f7a8backed Yes52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+107.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12c2…5a85backed No30c1,922$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.781421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88fd…750ebacked Yes52c1,833$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.332536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb089…628dbacked Yes55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.18633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d49…4f7cbacked No30c1,767$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.691346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e26…336cbacked Yes79c1,653$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.243666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7df…62efbacked No28c1,639$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcde0…267dbacked No50c1,628$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.273342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8616…c877backed No32c1,563$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef83…96ecbacked No32c1,539$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+96.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No34c1,451$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003560%21 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x057d…4d1fbacked No25c1,438$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.391844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes61c1,388$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.0913622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No23c1,369$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.946030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No46c1,356$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.4913230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed No31c1,350$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.993467.6%23 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+36.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes63c1,318$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.4914750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4181…e4fbbacked Yes78c1,285$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.651450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked No24c1,281$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3043231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes74c1,196$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.99932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Yes73c1,183$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.371662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No28c1,151$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.768641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed No30c1,049$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.278549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadf1…1e9bbacked No32c1,047$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.924452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked No24c1,041$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4612830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00f2…212ebacked Yes50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No1c999.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked Yes71c988.26$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes69c986.32$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.951844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9e…be96backed No24c984.89$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.672661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes53c970$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.46639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x69eb…1f04backed Yes72c962.76$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.491866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x342e…7e88backed Yes77c934.2$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.321471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+40.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No25c908.98$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.0117232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5916…f785backed No35c900$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.87520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-45.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a3…801cbacked No25c900$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes67c899.31$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.798652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes59c897.83$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.414355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No36c826.39$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.963912.8%5 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xffc5…e65cbacked No32c819.8$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.1140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed No26c817.13$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.181241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+30.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed No37c802.01$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3784…a44bbacked No25c801$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.01450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+112%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed Yes67c794.63$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.137360.3%44 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No25c791.6$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.338355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No38c788.36$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.5815855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x200e…28f9backed Yes64c766.29$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.49520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde89…e378backed Yes64c697.12$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.51875%6 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+154.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7b6…3158backed No36c695.08$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.711866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+43.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes72c692.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.093727%10 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71f3…28d1backed No43c682.24$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.384252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No21c675.13$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.787949.4%39 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e2…42d6backed Yes66c674.61$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.184119.5%8 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes69c674.51$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.4125528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x413d…d704backed No44c674.25$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No41c660.12$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.463545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No29c626.2$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.62352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32514147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb69…7632backed Yes71c620.86$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.864100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+101.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No38c599.99$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2286033.3%20 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9de6…d884backed Yes74c599.99$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1571650%8 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No47c599.98$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.596656.1%37 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No30c595.56$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.674348.8%21 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…3424backed No27c587.11$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8650%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No32c574.38$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.824258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1312…cf45backed No38c572.05$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.381145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed Yes47c558.57$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.633240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No30c537.73$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.1915451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes49c518.09$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.046540%26 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes60c514.71$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.512653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed No39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecf…afe2backed No27c512.79$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402119%4 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked No23c502.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.684247.6%20 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.