Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b627c7b2f82ea92dfb69650a87724664ad771d33ff838c11907efa71c5a4d61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $355,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $383,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 63c | 36,760$22,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,770.03 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 75c | 27,288$20,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,755.53 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 69c | 23,726$16,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,358.33 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 24c | 21,260$5,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,020.19 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 42c | 20,956$8,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,842.72 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 48c | 15,220$7,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,305.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 17c | 13,988$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,413.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 66c | 13,291$8,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,532.11 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 14c | 10,380$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.6 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 80c | 9,862$7,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.26 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 15c | 8,874$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.06 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef83…96ecbacked No | 12c | 8,239$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5b…4ababacked No | 3c | 6,050$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 43c | 5,625$2,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,438.04 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 47c | 5,200$2,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,753.26 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 65c | 4,701$3,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.01 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 79c | 4,674$3,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked No | 53c | 3,762$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked No | 54c | 3,637$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.98 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 50c | 3,502$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752.13 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 50c | 3,472$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.39 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 62c | 3,071$1,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…a44bbacked No | 9c | 2,945$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked No | 7c | 2,940$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.87 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 56c | 2,835$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 2,750$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 80c | 2,698$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.41 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 55c | 2,543$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.74 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 16c | 2,474$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.64 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 49c | 2,298$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.25 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…681fbacked No | 39c | 2,293$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.72 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…7e88backed Yes | 70c | 2,246$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.38 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 2,200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 51c | 2,183$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.02 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 11c | 2,099$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.98 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked Yes | 79c | 2,046$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.97 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38de…5e07backed No | 10c | 1,978$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…4503backed No | 51c | 1,957$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 55c | 1,924$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.83 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…d44bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,876$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 7c | 1,863$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 54c | 1,748$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.49 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5148…cd81backed Yes | 73c | 1,704$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.02 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 9c | 1,547$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…5a85backed No | 11c | 1,472$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…3ce1backed No | 7c | 1,418$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…9e9abacked No | 22c | 1,305$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 73c | 1,200$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.4 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed No | 22c | 1,200$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 53c | 1,187$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.24 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd305…08b1backed No | 9c | 1,163$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…c877backed No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 53c | 1,081$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.26 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 52c | 1,069$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.23 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…d7ebbacked Yes | 59c | 1,054$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 29c | 1,003$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.14 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…ef7abacked No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 48c | 950.32$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.99 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf643…3900backed Yes | 42c | 946$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.82 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7db…045bbacked No | 21c | 910$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…1290backed No | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 58c | 868.9$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.84 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…89afbacked No | 42c | 835.83$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 7c | 810.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…28d1backed No | 46c | 758.19$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.47 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 14c | 726.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked No | 30c | 661.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 22c | 650$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 639.9$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.54 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac4…53c9backed No | 50c | 600$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 47c | 600$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 9c | 555.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4375…2c0cbacked No | 9c | 549.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c6d9backed No | 12c | 520.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 12c | 508.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 26c | 499.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked No | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked No | 8c | 480$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…4f7cbacked No | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 36c | 449.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f63…5b31backed Yes | 79c | 440$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 10c | 439.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7964…f585backed Yes | 49c | 412$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a25…0eecbacked No | 7c | 368$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed No | 6c | 349.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…3808backed No | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 337.9$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.67 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 9c | 317.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 59c | 300$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed No | 11c | 288.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…37bebacked No | 10c | 270$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee58…b704backed No | 15c | 268.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 21?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 7?No won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.