Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce6510e18a646e35d77c22570cf628a2bed9dbc2e6ab0d87f1df1dc4e6181c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $260,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 44c | 25,589$11,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,289.52 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 29c | 12,921$3,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,735.45 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…6919backed Yes | 63c | 9,747$6,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,168.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 29c | 8,021$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.78 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 6,568$3,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,044.5 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 61c | 6,500$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 38c | 6,353$2,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,962.59 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 62c | 6,127$3,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,829.32 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abc…8163backed Yes | 25c | 5,700$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 69c | 5,016$3,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,442.09 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 54c | 4,610$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 33c | 4,560$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,062.93 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 44c | 4,199$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.62 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 45c | 4,048$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 66c | 3,841$2,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.64 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 68c | 3,682$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.37 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Yes | 66c | 3,472$2,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,287.83 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 35c | 3,145$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.89 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 14c | 3,002$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.9 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 66c | 2,858$1,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.24 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 40c | 2,525$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.92 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…f4efbacked Yes | 11c | 2,300$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 26c | 2,294$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.71 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 2,148$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.08 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 54c | 2,092$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.05 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked No | 73c | 1,910$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 1,801$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.71 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 41c | 1,764$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.74 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 26c | 1,638$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.35 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…8aa7backed Yes | 42c | 1,610$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 48c | 1,535$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.2 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 78c | 1,495$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.4 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 75c | 1,406$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed No | 73c | 1,374$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.59 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb1…14f4backed Yes | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 40c | 1,249$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.02 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cfd7backed Yes | 37c | 1,200$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 37c | 1,099$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.41 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 42c | 1,090$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,088$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 44c | 1,086$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.21 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…1290backed No | 38c | 1,086$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.14 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,035$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.56 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 70c | 1,033$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.23 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed Yes | 42c | 1,021$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 64c | 980.74$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.07 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 865.02$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.22 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 45c | 843.13$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.73 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked No | 80c | 838.44$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 804$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 45c | 795.2$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.22 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 67c | 762.48$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.89 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 37c | 717.35$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.34 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 77c | 700$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 35c | 700$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…3808backed No | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 36c | 650$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.77 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Yes | 39c | 638.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed No | 30c | 561.27$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.34 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed No | 34c | 550$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 39c | 550$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 16c | 506.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 69c | 500$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed No | 51c | 496.54$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.87 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 76c | 480$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 59c | 480$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 49c | 463.2$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.08 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 42c | 460$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 41c | 449.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.49 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaaa…68ecbacked No | 61c | 443.52$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…1943backed Yes | 68c | 442.96$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 29c | 439.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed No | 37c | 430.27$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.66 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 53c | 418.93$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.64 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 412.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 53c | 410.66$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.95 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…89afbacked No | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.95 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…3dc3backed Yes | 29c | 399.52$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 39c | 381.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 48c | 369.54$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.9 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 36c | 366.31$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.44 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 54c | 365$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…2172backed Yes | 34c | 334.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 54c | 323$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.42 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 68c | 316.79$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.42 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x990d…5463backed Yes | 59c | 315.15$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…f30dbacked No | 41c | 315.15$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 38c | 308.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.31 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af7…c796backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 52c | 300$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 32c | 299.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.99 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 70c | 292.6$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 286.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 74c | 271.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda2a…2f33backed Yes | 74c | 270$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 21?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 7?No won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.