Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32bf30ef446721900abc7a61e4ad0c875d233dc6d12cca4e138ff95d5c90c877
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $207,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $218,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 0c | 10,384$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 5c | 7,290$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,957.71 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 3c | 7,288$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,073.34 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a9…4f49backed Yes | 1c | 6,833$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,770.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +1,840.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 8c | 6,450$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,912.93 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x448a…0e85backed Yes | 1c | 6,152$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,096.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +11,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 13c | 5,716$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,979.89 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…f267backed Yes | 1c | 5,045$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,004.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +12,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 69c | 3,928$2,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.93 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 3c | 3,651$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccd3…af17backed Yes | 0c | 3,018$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,005.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +4,891.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,838$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,755.78 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 8c | 2,778$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,553.96 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…f9d2backed Yes | 8c | 2,580$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,189.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed No | 64c | 2,383$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.62 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 20c | 1,928$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.72 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 5c | 1,846$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…f7a8backed Yes | 11c | 1,679$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 70c | 1,664$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.67 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc15a…acacbacked Yes | 23c | 1,426$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…c877backed No | 74c | 1,354$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 54c | 1,181$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.52 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 12c | 1,150$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.84 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…aa99backed Yes | 12c | 1,138$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.51 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 23cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 33c | 1,101$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 1,095$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.92 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 20c | 1,070$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.2 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…a808backed Yes | 41c | 1,046$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,015$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.89 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 4c | 1,005$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.88 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 31c | 991.55$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.04 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…f325backed Yes | 20c | 968.03$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af7…d410backed Yes | 29c | 953.94$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 79c | 876.59$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.88 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 30c | 869.82$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.86 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 54c | 773.43$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.23 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes | 15c | 660.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…4f7cbacked No | 76c | 641.57$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 32c | 579.81$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.83 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 566.56$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.36 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6c…5711backed Yes | 5c | 532.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +1,048.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 14c | 526.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.29 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 29c | 500.19$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.7 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed No | 63c | 452.26$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc7…d019backed Yes | 16c | 445.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…ef79backed Yes | 23c | 443.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 70c | 421.95$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.73 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 64c | 409.22$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.81 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde93…5ff7backed No | 66c | 370.61$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 28c | 366.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.49 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…ed1abacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.14 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 18c | 327.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.47 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a8…ec99backed No | 79c | 321.73$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 78c | 308.52$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked No | 63c | 299.33$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…9a26backed No | 71c | 289.08$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 67c | 284.65$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 27c | 279.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.09 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 253.93$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.61 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.12 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked No | 72c | 231.94$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2f…56d5backed Yes | 38c | 220$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 7c | 218.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.29 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a25…0eecbacked No | 36c | 207.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…64cabacked No | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 54c | 187.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 13c | 186$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 60c | 177.66$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…5f03backed Yes | 59c | 170.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 14c | 162$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 156.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.75 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…1cf1backed No | 48c | 149.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 33c | 142.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.89 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…736bbacked Yes | 22c | 140$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…92cdbacked Yes | 36c | 139.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…dc2dbacked No | 72c | 138.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…bad6backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede7…4329backed Yes | 26c | 129.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…e164backed No | 80c | 127.44$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…d022backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 17c | 116.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed No | 61c | 113.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…3af7backed Yes | 18c | 112$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf63…1375backed No | 80c | 108.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 43c | 107.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…8898backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 37c | 103.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 58c | 94.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…42e2backed Yes | 47c | 89.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 19c | 87.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +6.4wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…5e21backed No | 71c | 74.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…819abacked No | 71c | 73.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 17c | 72.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…f69cbacked Yes | 20c | 72.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 56c | 70.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?this page
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 21?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 7?No won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.