Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de122fbf03c5dab20cfcfb1cee1e8ac10e03002e0cc4bb51300a5b4f38e721b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 18c | 12,108$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.61 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 2c | 6,200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,758$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…a808backed Yes | 31c | 1,659$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 24c | 1,484$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 74c | 1,480$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.77 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 7c | 1,455$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 65c | 1,250$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.5 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…dd69backed No | 71c | 1,224$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,053$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 1,014$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 69c | 985$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 10c | 952.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 38c | 781.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 27c | 740.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 61c | 711.79$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.6 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 79c | 550.35$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.46 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…8c1bbacked Yes | 34c | 507.16$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.63 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked Yes | 10c | 494.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 7c | 395.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 23c | 373.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…8523backed Yes | 3c | 299.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 70c | 242.23$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…e1ddbacked Yes | 6c | 236.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…97d1backed Yes | 9c | 232.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 211.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +6.4wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 33c | 104.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…9211backed No | 75c | 89.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf3…cfcfbacked No | 79c | 85.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…5466backed No | 69c | 72.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 45c | 55.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…ffecbacked Yes | 36c | 55.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b88bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…2e0fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 48.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…d717backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed No | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…03b1backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…4e4cbacked No | 70c | 28.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…d7c3backed No | 70c | 28.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85fe…51ffbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed No | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b8…0607backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…ea78backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a25…0eecbacked No | 72c | 18.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…bf5fbacked No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 7?this page
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 21?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.