Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdea0b3ee8019a66ad2d4ef724bb176b96f21a6f502c3f4158fcbe4fc21b6e0ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $220,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 13c | 28,226$3,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,651.59 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 15c | 27,285$4,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,151.63 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 8c | 12,235$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.09 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 9,382$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.54 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 74c | 9,016$6,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.08 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 3c | 6,353$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.11 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 8c | 5,034$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.89 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 15c | 4,387$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.67 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6d…723abacked Yes | 11c | 3,697$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +143%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,085$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.37 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 11c | 2,927$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.52 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +6.4wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,748$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.78 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,584$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 13c | 2,305$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…a671backed Yes | 19c | 2,073$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…f4efbacked Yes | 17c | 2,017$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 8c | 1,950$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 13c | 1,898$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.87 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 12c | 1,779$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.76 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…8c1bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,765$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…666ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,714$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 15c | 1,700$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f2…212ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,504$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 74c | 1,413$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.63 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…3dc3backed Yes | 8c | 1,374$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 15c | 1,368$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.52 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,339$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.48 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 5c | 1,317$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 23c | 1,147$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.3 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 15c | 1,132$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.52 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 16c | 864.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.95 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 7c | 791.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 14c | 750$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 10c | 684.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 24c | 625$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 79c | 587.82$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.69 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…56dcbacked Yes | 12c | 560.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 76c | 500$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd145…5f52backed No | 65c | 463.04$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 25c | 430$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…89afbacked No | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 22c | 383.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 69c | 374.22$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe2…e0aabacked Yes | 14c | 353.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 26c | 320$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa120…5a81backed Yes | 9c | 318.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 12c | 305.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3b…55b0backed Yes | 8c | 303.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25a…8789backed Yes | 8c | 253.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 14c | 249.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…e35cbacked No | 80c | 248.74$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 12c | 224.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…da44backed Yes | 9c | 210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 70c | 206.36$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…7b32backed Yes | 6c | 204.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b476backed Yes | 21c | 189.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…97d1backed Yes | 14c | 183.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…28f9backed Yes | 13c | 182.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…80d3backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb59…1e96backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 16c | 125.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 111.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 17c | 105.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 18c | 105.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd8…fd86backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…e748backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…2172backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…681fbacked No | 78c | 91.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 67c | 86.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 15c | 85.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2b…a48ebacked Yes | 16c | 83.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…7684backed No | 78c | 76.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…617abacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…03b1backed Yes | 28c | 70.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 62.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 26c | 59.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…70a6backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 48.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 68c | 43.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…2ce2backed Yes | 30c | 35.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…585abacked Yes | 29c | 34.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 72c | 30.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 21?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 7?No won
- Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.