China Taiwan · resolved market
China x Philippines military clash by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89c555d51c3ec91cda2cc7ee12f8d69b2376f81c46b0588c1616579de7ac8c62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26ba…484ebacked Yes | 12c | 69,905$8,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,388.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…ae6cbacked Yes | 7c | 6,202$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 4,463$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 3,860$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 8c | 3,525$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e9…20bcbacked Yes | 8c | 3,319$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 8c | 2,895$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,467$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…4883backed Yes | 5c | 2,022$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1962…aa3ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,957$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…6b50backed Yes | 5c | 1,898$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…d63ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,392$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 12c | 1,307$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.68 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,102$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,051$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,032$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 1,025$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01c…ecb7backed Yes | 6c | 999.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 875.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 644.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…8805backed Yes | 5c | 470$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…bf5cbacked Yes | 13c | 423.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…a154backed Yes | 7c | 421.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8287…4684backed Yes | 6c | 389.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…23c5backed Yes | 6c | 381.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 346.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…9b54backed Yes | 9c | 340.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…5262backed Yes | 4c | 310.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…1bc0backed Yes | 4c | 308.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…fd6dbacked Yes | 11c | 305.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…6e44backed Yes | 14c | 295.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…f6f1backed Yes | 4c | 288.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 6c | 287.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…fddebacked Yes | 7c | 283.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 14c | 269$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 7c | 249.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed Yes | 11c | 240.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…60e9backed Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…3b40backed Yes | 4c | 223.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 6c | 200.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…15e8backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…9fb7backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 8c | 195.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…d1e3backed Yes | 14c | 185$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 168.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf420…50c3backed Yes | 9c | 161.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 11c | 158.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca5…6785backed Yes | 7c | 141.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb09…738dbacked Yes | 8c | 140.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0af…0b45backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- China x Philippines military clash by December 31?this page
- China x Philippines military clash by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.