TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$601,601
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$623,307

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $601,601 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 598 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes27c57,789$15,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,826.73823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…4710backed Yes72c46,585$33,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,616.02742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes71c25,063$17,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,841.356546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes15c14,764$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,256.9743212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1c…1cedbacked No61c14,616$8,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,677.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed No55c13,621$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,120.951844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc158…f3cabacked No50c13,228$6,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,644.31457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…aa35backed Yes8c12,014$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990210%0 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes46c11,180$5,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,147.187751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes51c10,373$5,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,308.4856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes61c7,666$4,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,678.893969.2%27 W · 12 L+10.0wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+77.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes40c7,323$2,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,893.01539.4%5 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d4…fb37backed Yes49c6,600$3,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2341181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+43.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes62c6,511$4,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,031.528056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e34…9cd8backed No31c5,900$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,075757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe967…f62bbacked Yes63c5,399$3,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,395.011637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3421…5cafbacked No32c5,381$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,656.13683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+73.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xddc0…3a00backed Yes33c5,326$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.172548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1129…b1debacked Yes10c5,060$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes7c4,775$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.231879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f00…2b5bbacked Yes69c4,704$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2501442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc976…0ad5backed Yes41c4,610$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.43534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b26…f07bbacked Yes62c4,573$2,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,812.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a95…10b0backed No77c4,484$3,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a26…a80fbacked No40c4,461$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,689.681250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ff…4d3dbacked No60c4,337$2,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes36c4,254$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.7542818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes27c3,716$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.78725.3%22 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Yes58c3,578$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.691154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes42c3,547$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.295952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff18…d073backed No32c3,480$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,353.62147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70ef…63b4backed Yes46c3,445$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.384042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes34c3,435$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.9840828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc24f…adf8backed Yes35c3,325$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.474938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No53c3,212$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.377247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa52f…0425backed No58c2,700$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.382240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc2…e3f4backed No72c2,684$1,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.161241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick54cpaid+35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87c3…2945backed No43c2,632$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.32966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaec2…cb66backed No78c2,572$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.28862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+104.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87ab…1050backed Yes50c2,400$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes43c2,316$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21da…a70dbacked Yes22c2,310$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.931723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Yes9c2,270$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.52933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff77…4b76backed No38c2,227$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.452065%13 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes33c2,141$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.658641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed No26c2,110$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.42429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6dc…3843backed No70c2,095$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.651181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick62cpaid+27.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x060a…563bbacked No39c2,056$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.49944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No31c2,051$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.8433337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes20c2,049$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.915331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2802458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e9…c21ebacked No35c1,938$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.971855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes26c1,906$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.2548923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No79c1,753$1,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.57252.8%38 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No70c1,700$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes49c1,673$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.273745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf985…d7bcbacked Yes61c1,633$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.48450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53cb…fc91backed No50c1,632$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No28c1,580$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.647335.6%26 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43db…133ebacked Yes32c1,560$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-51.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb208…90f7backed Yes6c1,556$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.911127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ef…35b5backed No74c1,513$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.83875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0301…aa15backed Yes57c1,507$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.772832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae70…dfdabacked No65c1,462$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed No32c1,459$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.941942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860f…0a33backed No35c1,445$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.01966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes33c1,438$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.214520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490e…9d7cbacked No43c1,354$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.491931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No62c1,342$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.573732.4%12 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed No57c1,300$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.777025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…cd45backed No43c1,298$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.88785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+47.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bb3…2682backed No41c1,200$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.047045.7%32 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee94…2ad7backed No50c1,199$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c9…cef3backed Yes8c1,197$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.573735.1%13 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed No60c1,190$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.181338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid-31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a47…cd7abacked Yes22c1,167$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39ff…d637backed No67c1,099$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.993847.4%18 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ccf…34e6backed No50c1,099$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.54933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…e940backed No36c1,095$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+175.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d1…a8eebacked No60c1,075$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac1…1316backed No78c1,055$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked Yes66c1,037$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.242552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes52c1,024$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.213910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-58.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes6c1,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ab…07edbacked No35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick14cpaid+242.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes54c999.97$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.998739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa889…ca3ebacked No40c989.25$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+147.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No44c971.83$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.7517646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e5…5bb5backed Yes66c955.38$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.252433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10b6…edc7backed No55c953.6$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.6887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick63cpaid+41%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x388f…4083backed No39c934$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.16520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68f9…d046backed No38c921.94$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick40cpaid-62.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7803…15a6backed No79c912$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick75cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6360…2e50backed Yes40c901.15$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3233…24f7backed No42c890.49$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.27862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x120d…710ebacked No42c882.17$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.962040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc1…9a12backed Yes51c863.84$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.561233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef5d…12e7backed Yes26c787.58$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.611723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75b1…e2e8backed No63c780$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a85…1811backed Yes52c774.83$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.64630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.