TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x87c3…2945

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
35
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST1566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$931Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$931
Nigeria vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,048Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$1,048.09
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,447Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+128.1%+$1,853
Will Cameroon win on 2026-01-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,999Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$1,998.84
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,647Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+26.1%+$1,473
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,728Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+92.5%+$1,597.93
Will Algeria vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2025-12-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+53.8%+$175
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+53.9%+$175.64
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,255Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+63.6%+$797.63
Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-12-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+75.5%+$301.96
Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$801Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+25.1%+$201.18
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$6,072Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+82.4%+$5,005.17
Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+105.3%+$210.65
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$34
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,101Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,100.75
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$104
Greta Thunberg arrested by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+182.5%+$323.03
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$785Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$784.63
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,132Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+132.5%+$1,500.32
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$891Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+85.5%+$761.4
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$644Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+67.8%+$436.2
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$796Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+115.6%+$920.22
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana reach $200 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Will Solana reach $180 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$129
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zama auction clearing price above $0.04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+42.9%+$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$112
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-01-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$324.59
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.