AI · resolved market
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa215a01e3a090d52a7acd91d0a6d0576d4d908fe6221eb3477ea1503d06be613
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cd…bcd0backed No | 79c | 2,542$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,181$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.67 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 20c | 906.01$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.04 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes | 4c | 521.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 5cpaid | +476.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 50c | 401.29$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.29 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…4b4fbacked Yes | 72c | 250.83$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 155.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 25c | 144.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…4e84backed Yes | 16c | 141.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 68c | 106.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2eb1backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…966fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…dddebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…d21fbacked Yes | 61c | 98.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Yes | 72c | 97.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5299…f785backed Yes | 61c | 87.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…621ebacked No | 59c | 84.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 65c | 82.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 58c | 73.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x280d…47a9backed Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 30c | 69.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 62.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 30c | 55.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 27c | 53.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 50.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…fc02backed Yes | 62c | 32.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…ff54backed Yes | 52c | 31.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a5…665fbacked Yes | 58c | 30.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f844backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c3…2945backed No | 42c | 29.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…d4cdbacked Yes | 73c | 26.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…720dbacked No | 44c | 23.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…5012backed Yes | 53c | 21.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Google be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will JumpJumpVPN: Fast & Secure be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Paramount+ be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will UpScrolled be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.