AI · resolved market
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02cfc5cef3e443d8e687e0826d0242a00565f12d7d15d4f2b54b75a171aef774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6897…63b6backed Yes | 15c | 1,397$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,092$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 20c | 891.83$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.63 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 14c | 666$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 16c | 645$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 33c | 485.62$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 10c | 458.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 73c | 411.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 15c | 363$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 60c | 252.33$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…e584backed No | 53c | 237$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 227.16$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 211.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…49e1backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 191.56$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 58c | 191.09$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…ab75backed Yes | 12c | 164.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked No | 53c | 135.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 19c | 133$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 24c | 119.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 11c | 101.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 16c | 101.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 100.32$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…e1e2backed No | 53c | 89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 44c | 82.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x280d…47a9backed Yes | 61c | 81.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…1213backed Yes | 54c | 65.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…4e84backed Yes | 37c | 64.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…d6edbacked Yes | 55c | 60.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 72c | 59.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…621ebacked Yes | 49c | 55.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a5…665fbacked Yes | 56c | 54.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed No | 61c | 54.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 56c | 39.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…d199backed Yes | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 59c | 33.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…84adbacked Yes | 59c | 29.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 45c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…f86dbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c3…2945backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…9870backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Google be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will JumpJumpVPN: Fast & Secure be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Paramount+ be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will UpScrolled be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.