AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb81b097642a9ef11773a57a8b3b102d88c6ea5ca153b254cb7cdf874a03a954f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 64c | 3,536$2,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,265.13 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,610$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 10c | 1,587$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.34 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…5907backed Yes | 21c | 1,432$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 79c | 1,095$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 23c | 785.26$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.31 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 14c | 715$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 11c | 539$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed No | 22c | 525$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +403%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 516.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 17c | 450$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 28c | 400$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.9 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 10c | 382.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed No | 79c | 330$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +120%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 41c | 281.22$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Yes | 11c | 260$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…af16backed Yes | 13c | 227.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 11c | 218$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 7c | 208.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 13c | 195.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c0…b79fbacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e58…4668backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 17cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…668ebacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ba…d596backed Yes | 14c | 130.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…32abbacked Yes | 64c | 123.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 11c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…52a5backed Yes | 19c | 106.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd476…ad00backed Yes | 53c | 93.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 67c | 77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 20c | 73.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5ca7backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…43ebbacked Yes | 79c | 63.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 34c | 58.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 34c | 56.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824f…abddbacked Yes | 60c | 55.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a77…0ed9backed Yes | 80c | 46.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…bfcebacked Yes | 79c | 34.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b40…f423backed Yes | 78c | 25.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e29…b98abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…52cdbacked Yes | 78c | 13.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?this page
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Google be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will JumpJumpVPN: Fast & Secure be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Paramount+ be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will UpScrolled be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.