AI · resolved market
Will UpScrolled be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5adebeb0fe6eac6c961c108d2e0cd3b807109f69d2fad2752a713e97b10ccfbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x407d…8db6backed No | 14c | 21,700$3,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,038 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…9c30backed No | 13c | 20,500$2,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,732.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…7658backed No | 16c | 12,700$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…58c7backed Yes | 26c | 1,700$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 75c | 1,639$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.52 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd0…eb81backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 30c | 1,412$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.13 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f3…1d61backed No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed No | 71c | 969$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…a8edbacked Yes | 75c | 943.86$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…5f3bbacked Yes | 26c | 800$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 45c | 761$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 31c | 658$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 69c | 639$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 29c | 602$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.42 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 55c | 582$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.9 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824f…abddbacked Yes | 76c | 545.59$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed No | 4c | 528.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 54c | 313.44$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.44 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 31c | 313$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.97 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed No | 69c | 313$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.97 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 23c | 302.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.65 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes | 29c | 275$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 63c | 235$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.65 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…6d97backed Yes | 48c | 208.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 31c | 203$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 33cpaid | +117%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 11c | 199.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed No | 69c | 183$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 55c | 179$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 169.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 16c | 168.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.88 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…0be4backed Yes | 63c | 159.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 67c | 149.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…4e07backed Yes | 74c | 134.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 69c | 127.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 33c | 114.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 55c | 113.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c1…6512backed No | 66c | 111$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd476…ad00backed Yes | 75c | 107.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 106.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 103.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cd…bcd0backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 28c | 93.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 29c | 92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…51acbacked Yes | 80c | 89.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…635dbacked Yes | 57c | 88.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 80.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 43c | 53.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 52c | 53.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…4e84backed Yes | 30c | 47.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…2dc7backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d2…1b00backed Yes | 72c | 40.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3d…eb89backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed No | 69c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…f299backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 58c | 38.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…ab75backed Yes | 58c | 34.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992f…c9febacked Yes | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…6266backed Yes | 64c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…18fbbacked Yes | 46c | 30.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…f87cbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72d…1389backed Yes | 67c | 29.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…ae62backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 25.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 77c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…f3ecbacked Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…e1e2backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca90…6791backed Yes | 76c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UpScrolled be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Google be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will JumpJumpVPN: Fast & Secure be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Paramount+ be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.