TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,659,881
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,654,444

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,659,881 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes24c416,219$100,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315,5731612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No49c349,395$169,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169,523.015141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes39c271,527$106,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165,496.851138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes22c251,000$55,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195,491.943823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae0…1472backed No78c224,315$176,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175,999.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes26c170,746$44,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126,066.6435347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No65c147,892$96,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,059.553933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes45c139,636$63,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,569.9837740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes37c130,146$48,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,057.2226423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes54c126,499$67,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,672.163141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes53c117,093$62,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,082.998137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No52c111,464$58,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,467.54257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No68c107,295$72,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,604.086134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bcd…fa31backed No56c103,317$57,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,838.221553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes49c96,566$46,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,611.4448923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No46c94,183$43,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,548.951643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52a1…7833backed Yes73c68,487$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,487.081050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes28c64,079$18,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,049.5842738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No69c64,063$43,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,961.323351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed No41c61,856$25,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,580.223237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes60c56,468$33,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,542.2813823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed No69c55,245$38,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,129.031723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick43cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked No75c50,000$37,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes36c49,616$17,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,89431241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No34c47,845$16,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,354.317142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No43c46,130$19,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,747.353225%8 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed No66c45,120$29,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,609.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No63c44,163$27,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,768.731752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No19c42,741$8,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,252.5640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0d…8f51backed Yes60c41,272$24,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,593.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6e…f73dbacked No46c40,000$18,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,370.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No56c38,949$21,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,774.1240828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes59c37,651$22,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,514.137542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df1…b615backed No78c37,275$29,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,212.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3fa…ff2dbacked Yes25c36,130$9,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,918.03560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+158.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Yes63c33,240$20,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,408.511747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes34c31,860$10,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,148.953250%16 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes58c30,420$17,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,759.54714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-75.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No61c30,042$18,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,321.8510837%40 W · 68 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No61c29,592$18,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,123.963438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-38.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x207d…7a98backed No33c28,946$9,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,623.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed No76c27,000$20,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,520540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes33c26,410$8,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,814.232839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…4710backed Yes34c24,139$8,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,963.15742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No66c23,184$15,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,367.639647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7a5…cdbfbacked Yes37c22,878$8,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,403.773246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91ef…03efbacked No74c22,806$16,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,966.831172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes38c21,664$8,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,400.015042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No41c20,500$8,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,39415626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No64c20,282$13,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,022.13050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No32c19,400$6,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,159.9811728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes42c19,063$7,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,098.3320736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes66c17,543$11,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,958.183770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No6c17,214$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.3210634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3238…3291backed No74c16,991$12,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,630.211464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick71cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No50c16,817$8,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,466.011127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ce…f74dbacked Yes39c16,081$6,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,794.87862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+45.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed No5c16,081$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee29…8c8bbacked Yes38c15,882$5,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,896.93580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+149.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes28c15,066$4,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,896.216961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No50c14,961$7,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,449.5913746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed Yes43c14,954$6,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,475.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+101%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes31c14,912$4,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,323.7834440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes17c14,055$2,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,697.8510426%27 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+101.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No59c13,830$8,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,113.678036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes41c13,767$5,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,181.381764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+21.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x840f…48e4backed Yes75c13,745$10,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,452.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed No78c13,702$10,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,688.957067.1%47 W · 23 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes59c13,127$7,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,427.518845.5%40 W · 48 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes56c13,000$7,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,719.982166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+55.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes63c12,895$8,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,715.935851.7%30 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed No78c12,888$9,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No3c12,562$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.8242818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes57c12,330$7,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,241.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+143.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked No70c12,120$8,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,449.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No69c12,074$8,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,315.977252.8%38 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8465…8e31backed No21c12,010$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.62933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes28c12,001$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,640.927448.6%36 W · 38 L+9.7wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+156.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x765d…0929backed No76c11,842$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0001643.8%7 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.23per pick67cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes27c11,800$3,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,585.078125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff5…5155backed No64c11,781$7,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,579.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5607…fd15backed No40c11,640$4,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,650.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes61c11,485$6,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,486.17462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de8…4069backed No53c11,454$6,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,058.5560%0 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Yes28c11,249$3,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,147.333447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No69c11,040$7,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,656.6718151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed Yes39c11,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,700837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed No78c10,917$8,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,566.231844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes73c10,852$7,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.358056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed No63c10,801$6,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,783.532055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe162…8a81backed Yes28c10,791$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,791.283033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d13…a018backed No14c10,776$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.421233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x714b…d071backed No63c10,675$6,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,726.432934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+154%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1655…a669backed Yes43c10,626$4,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,098.81650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed No44c10,570$4,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,598.92055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes21c10,266$2,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,068.5117018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ab7…82fabacked No2c10,206$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fbe…819ebacked No70c10,158$7,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,148.92520%1 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick72cpaid-74%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No1c10,100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.11976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c17…83c8backed No50c10,036$5,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,055.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.