TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x91ef…03ef

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: UFC, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 54 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST1822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-16.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+74.2%+$117.28
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$291.12
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$216.48
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$377Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+440.3%+$1,657.89
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$597Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$596.57
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$370.07
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$379.18
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$223.22
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+486.1%+$829.5
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$238.89
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.14
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$661Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$715.62
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$222
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+33.9%+$163.44
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,790Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,790.34
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$16,967Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$16,966.83
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$4,552Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+30%+$1,363.98
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,221Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$1,387.66
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,310Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+35.3%+$1,169.15
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,872Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+75.8%+$2,176.51
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,183Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+66.9%+$790.92
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$42.48
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,138Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+31.3%+$669.94
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+35.5%+$18.27
Du Plessis vs. Stricklandbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+48.8%+$80.47
Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruikbacked Pavlovich · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+35.1%+$42.51
Rakhmonov vs. Garrybacked Rakhmonov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+31.1%+$156.56
All 4 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2backed Usyk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,530Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+31%+$474.72
Will Usyk beat Fury?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$659Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+70.2%+$462.48
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+56.3%+$21.66
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the match between Inter Milan and Arsenal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST+170.5%+$170.54
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,033Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$1,033.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dynamo Kyiv beat Ferencvaros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$107.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$360.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.