Champions League · resolved market
Will the match between Inter Milan and Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc69b6210574196331398f9511268333bba0615864837b076c6e58c7672decf1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 30c | 3,500$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 68c | 3,237$2,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.84 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 67c | 3,176$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.35 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 29c | 2,500$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f7…02f2backed Yes | 41c | 1,576$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…1c2cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,570$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…a98bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 69c | 1,101$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.18 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 61c | 1,078$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.01 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 29c | 457.51$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…080bbacked Yes | 31c | 451.61$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3456…3f87backed Yes | 34c | 327.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…03efbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 76c | 310$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…b0fcbacked Yes | 45c | 222.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…4dc8backed Yes | 32c | 171.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…12a3backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 31c | 145.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 69c | 136.37$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.27per pick | 62cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…34b5backed Yes | 31c | 101$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…e16bbacked Yes | 33c | 100.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5279…866fbacked Yes | 31c | 98.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…38b4backed Yes | 31c | 83.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde6e…8444backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…2b62backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…27b3backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…f6d2backed Yes | 32c | 41.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb3…c1d4backed Yes | 30c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5342…0f95backed Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b3…5e9fbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Inter Milan and Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal beat Inter Milan?No won
- Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.