Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa140f5df2dcd4edd9b2d9bbfb8f986fc9ba899cf238d79f90dcab4ae4e245cf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $420,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 21,387$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.64 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 6c | 20,086$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.38 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 2c | 19,915$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.54 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 16,054$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.62 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 5c | 12,330$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.99 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 7c | 11,868$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.21 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 3c | 10,486$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…d301backed Yes | 16c | 9,261$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 9,047$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.27 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 8,794$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 4c | 7,950$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.37 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 9c | 6,650$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 6,421$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.22 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 10c | 4,221$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.2 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 3c | 4,118$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 5c | 4,003$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 12c | 3,736$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.05 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,614$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.94 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,514$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 5c | 3,400$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 3,323$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 5c | 3,200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 1c | 2,937$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,807$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.27 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 2c | 2,788$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 9c | 2,695$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,608$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,585$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.95 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…07f1backed Yes | 3c | 2,334$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 14c | 2,210$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.93 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 2,111$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 11c | 2,016$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.31 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…03efbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.22 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 2c | 1,947$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 11c | 1,741$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,631$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.71 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 8c | 1,630$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 3c | 1,529$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 5c | 1,507$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 3c | 1,435$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 14c | 1,391$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 4c | 1,352$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,309$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 1,298$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…f01bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,291$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 3c | 1,270$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,207$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…dd10backed Yes | 1c | 1,120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 1c | 1,098$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 17c | 1,055$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.34 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8b…5a0fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,014$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…6392backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 990.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 14c | 981.47$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 5c | 910$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 8c | 815.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 813.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 15c | 786.61$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 11c | 777$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 8c | 750$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 12c | 727.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 9c | 725$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8172…abeabacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 8c | 616.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 6c | 605.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…ad04backed Yes | 3c | 602$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…27b9backed Yes | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435b…65a1backed Yes | 11c | 573.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f48abacked Yes | 4c | 573$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 2c | 564.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 6c | 540$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 12c | 500.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 14c | 499.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac6…f6eabacked Yes | 3c | 491.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…80c9backed Yes | 3c | 490.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 16c | 480.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 9c | 463.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 421.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…b898backed Yes | 10c | 409$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…f272backed Yes | 11c | 405.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 14c | 400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 12c | 383.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 16c | 370.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 3c | 363.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 10c | 360$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b5…8b70backed Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 9c | 318.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cc…ec28backed Yes | 11c | 304.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…f224backed Yes | 11c | 303.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.