Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10364f7ae861a4d7bd66eec0602c7ef2e5042bb8d9d61aea220d6bed190626f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $499,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $499,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 8c | 20,131$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.1 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 13c | 13,095$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.49 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 12,502$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.27 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 13c | 10,535$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.27 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 11c | 9,262$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.3 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 13c | 8,253$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.77 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 15c | 7,968$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.31 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 17c | 7,947$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.34 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 12c | 7,689$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.14 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 16c | 7,283$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.93 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 14c | 7,229$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.82 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 7,040$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.28 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 15c | 6,834$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.29 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…d301backed Yes | 21c | 6,435$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 21c | 6,083$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 16c | 5,608$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 21c | 5,549$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.22 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 5,379$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.64 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 10c | 4,985$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.1 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3757…ec0fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,792$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 4,770$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.12 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 3,892$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.97 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 17c | 3,890$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.73 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 12c | 3,563$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.56 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 76c | 3,500$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 20c | 3,376$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 12c | 3,147$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.5 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 15c | 3,056$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.37 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 17c | 2,856$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.11 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,816$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.84 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 1c | 2,726$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,721$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.84 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 11c | 2,680$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.22 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…03efbacked Yes | 14c | 2,649$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.18 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 16c | 2,606$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.14 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 7c | 2,592$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 11c | 2,450$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.46 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 78c | 2,422$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.71 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 2,395$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,395$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.77 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 14c | 2,386$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.78 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1069…c029backed Yes | 7c | 2,245$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,237$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.85 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 20c | 2,200$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.74 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 17c | 2,197$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…7ee3backed Yes | 2c | 2,007$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…2575backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 11c | 1,907$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.75 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…681abacked Yes | 3c | 1,821$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 9c | 1,807$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.16 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e2…ebc5backed Yes | 21c | 1,765$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 1c | 1,760$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…3bdebacked Yes | 13c | 1,737$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 13c | 1,714$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.31 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 8c | 1,600$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 9c | 1,600$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c76backed Yes | 16c | 1,506$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 19c | 1,449$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 1,382$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.29 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed No | 79c | 1,335$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.33 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 14c | 1,305$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.22 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 1,269$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…e11fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,240$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.75 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 1,239$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.72 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 19c | 1,217$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 13c | 1,209$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.19 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 7c | 1,200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…5adfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,188$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad3…8448backed Yes | 16c | 1,131$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…1e99backed Yes | 24c | 1,121$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,115$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,100$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 14c | 1,090$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.73 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…1d97backed Yes | 19c | 1,076$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +165.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 10c | 1,011$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…6392backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…931ebacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 8c | 999.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…797cbacked Yes | 12c | 981.08$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 6c | 954.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…d349backed Yes | 15c | 953.77$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 14c | 952$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.77 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 11c | 950.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 17c | 946.48$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.68 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…f01bbacked Yes | 19c | 938.89$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 15c | 917$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.41 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 20c | 904.84$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 12c | 815.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…7ad8backed Yes | 14c | 812.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…db17backed Yes | 25c | 804.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 7c | 800$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 20c | 796.37$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.79 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.