Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd46b6b8aa22b6d2068e3d98877e13dcb95f52bc6298156b3c6d76644f003cefd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $483,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $477,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $483,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 361 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 55c | 12,980$7,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,832.35 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 55c | 10,771$5,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,936.33 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 10c | 10,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.99 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 57c | 9,211$5,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,991.01 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 26c | 7,001$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,164.42 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 25c | 6,920$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,202.12 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 49c | 6,106$2,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,133.51 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 22c | 6,000$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,654.99 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked No | 1c | 5,968$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 54c | 5,878$3,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,702.18 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…de29backed Yes | 35c | 5,751$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,754.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…d301backed Yes | 34c | 5,110$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,370.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 15c | 4,751$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,017.29 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0e…61dabacked Yes | 59c | 4,550$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 59c | 4,427$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.36 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 48c | 4,409$2,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275.09 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 15c | 4,357$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,696.69 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 36c | 4,044$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,586.28 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 23c | 3,842$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,947.52 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c76backed Yes | 76c | 3,757$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 34c | 3,732$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…1e2ebacked Yes | 27c | 3,467$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,545.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 22c | 2,906$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.62 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 2,778$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.13 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 39c | 2,717$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.05 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 45c | 2,678$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.62 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 2,649$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.21 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 27c | 2,511$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.11 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 18c | 2,310$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.71 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 47c | 2,191$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.62 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 67c | 2,177$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.41 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 17c | 2,101$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.4 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 29c | 2,094$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.48 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,986$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.21 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 1,886$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.34 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked No | 36c | 1,822$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe677…bc17backed Yes | 62c | 1,798$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 30c | 1,771$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.73 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 60c | 1,694$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.44 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 34c | 1,667$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.48 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e2…ebc5backed Yes | 46c | 1,662$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 14c | 1,597$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.26 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 13c | 1,540$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.79 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…1e99backed Yes | 79c | 1,516$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 50c | 1,457$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.39 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,429$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.74 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 28c | 1,411$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.97 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 23c | 1,347$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.35 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 1,343$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.38 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 28c | 1,296$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.63 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 21c | 1,257$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.6 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 16c | 1,217$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.15 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 2c | 1,212$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 20c | 1,211$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.75 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…f01bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,183$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b5…1be0backed Yes | 36c | 1,171$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 22c | 1,155$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.75 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 39c | 1,065$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.43 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 53c | 1,033$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.01 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 53c | 1,004$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.46 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…03efbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked No | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…6392backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 21c | 999.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.99 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 69c | 986$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.23 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 47c | 967.82$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.58 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 59c | 955.5$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.5 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…efbebacked Yes | 77c | 951.37$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes | 78c | 931.61$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.97 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 23c | 880.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.98 | 202 | 22.8%46 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 70c | 860.75$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.57 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 34c | 854.81$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.17 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…6589backed No | 16c | 850$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 27c | 850$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.5 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 23c | 849.81$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.49 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 17c | 838.34$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.43 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5598…acb2backed Yes | 73c | 826.89$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 22c | 815.75$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.5 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed No | 15c | 809$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…fbe8backed No | 27c | 800$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 20c | 750$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…0432backed No | 18c | 741.62$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 15c | 718.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.67 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc947…0e21backed Yes | 25c | 714.16$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.16 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed No | 20c | 710.42$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 29c | 701.96$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.62 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0311…e202backed Yes | 77c | 666.42$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…a36ebacked No | 23c | 662.53$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 30c | 644.57$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.22 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 38c | 575.28$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.36 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435b…65a1backed Yes | 26c | 573.86$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.66 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 12c | 571.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.49 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…ae31backed Yes | 29c | 554.54$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.54 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 15c | 550.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.03 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…4000backed Yes | 19c | 536.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 56c | 528.99$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.23 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 53c | 526.1$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.1 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 33c | 525.69$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.69 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 30c | 511.48$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.56 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 49c | 511.41$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.41 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.