Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85f7af3d64eacb9586fe8b35275a1767feac4a2ad9c546e4ff00b7e7acacae4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $355,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 3c | 29,720$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.19 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 27,971$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 24,481$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.17 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 7c | 13,459$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.76 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 12,484$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.02 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 10,799$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 10,583$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 9,203$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,700$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.11 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 7c | 6,100$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.48 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 5,025$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 5,020$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…7ad7backed Yes | 0c | 4,705$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 10c | 4,412$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 4,072$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.02 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 3c | 4,062$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 9c | 3,880$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.25 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 3,054$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 2,819$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 3c | 2,467$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 2,200$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 1,958$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,926$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.06 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 7c | 1,886$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 10c | 1,782$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.19 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 7c | 1,723$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 1,650$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.13 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 1c | 1,553$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 9c | 1,493$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.42 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,454$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 6c | 1,283$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,166$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8b…5a0fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,141$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…f1d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,124$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 1,081$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…9120backed Yes | 7c | 959.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8172…abeabacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 8c | 799.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 3c | 799.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c35…1788backed Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 3c | 684$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 7c | 658.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 578 | 11.4%66 W · 512 L | +19.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 9c | 601.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 580$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435b…65a1backed Yes | 7c | 573.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 553.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 8c | 509.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 10c | 508.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 10c | 494.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…9bcbbacked Yes | 4c | 460$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 7c | 448$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 9c | 445$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 9c | 398.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…e333backed Yes | 8c | 395$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc3…5acebacked Yes | 11c | 387.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023b…f8a3backed Yes | 11c | 340$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 6c | 320$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 4c | 310$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…f224backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 7c | 277$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 8c | 268$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…5e3cbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…d033backed Yes | 8c | 245.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…a80abacked Yes | 8c | 228$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 11c | 218.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…6bc1backed Yes | 9c | 210.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…8059backed Yes | 11c | 174.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 6c | 169.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe79…9d68backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b5…8b70backed Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 8c | 130.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…3ed6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…3151backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe960…8e98backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…4f2abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.