TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x65d7…19c4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tweets, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2025, EDT2536%9 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$364.28
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT+43%+$66.78
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.58
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$124.65
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+45.8%+$227.47
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$729Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+106.2%+$773.48
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.1
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.4
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+724.8%+$168.71
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.19
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.37
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.59
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.27
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+649.6%+$363.97
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.29
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$434.08
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+90.6%+$70.84
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.25
Will Elon tweet 275–289 times May 30–June 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$38.22
Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+100.7%+$441.03
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.07
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.3
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+44.3%+$54.73
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.76
All 25 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-64.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$6.78
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$22.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will London have between 30-40mm of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs 2007 (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Group Cbacked Lazer Cats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.19
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.