TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,274

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,004 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6964…ef53backed No48c4,197$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.8266222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No3c4,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+140.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No1c3,673$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.154568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes48c3,142$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.95837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes49c1,713$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes38c1,515$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.681844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick32cpaid-3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed No76c1,063$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8098523.5%20 W · 65 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x248c…5834backed No2c1,030$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda3…98edbacked Yes55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed No45c965.8$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.619423.4%22 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-23.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes57c911.85$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes42c790.47$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.6714530.3%44 W · 101 L-12.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe65b…2575backed No37c717.91$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.63922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes57c673.56$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.861233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b1…5a3fbacked No55c639.81$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No49c602.96$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.91868.6%16 W · 170 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No48c594.3$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.383528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked No47c494.14$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.1214715%22 W · 125 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+80.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6d…6d1abacked No45c465$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No49c445.88$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7433527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Yes50c438.36$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.267139.4%28 W · 43 L+9.0wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+45.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes62c359.6$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.95014%7 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b27…a041backed No45c310$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed Yes11c265.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.367545.3%34 W · 41 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+54.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes62c242$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.82785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed No41c235.83$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.095418.5%10 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c235.18$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.9679735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf378…a3c9backed No45c225$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed No56c220.32$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.21050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes15c201.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.521822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes19c200$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1624055%22 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…8f73backed Yes10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18012623%29 W · 97 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x358a…d45fbacked No47c196.81$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa50f…84cdbacked No44c196.21$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.761526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x243f…5a02backed Yes64c180$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.83770.3%26 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+26.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No36c176.83$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7420973.2%153 W · 56 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3124…014bbacked No52c173$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes51c166.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes62c162.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.262429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+95.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes64c160.24$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.198423.8%20 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed No52c160$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed No79c150.73$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.083876.5%25 W · 362 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa99b…65cdbacked No54c147.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67fd…2b74backed No38c140.66$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed Yes38c134.95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1518163%114 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4662…b73abacked No44c133.7$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+53.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe590…73e9backed Yes15c129.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+584.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes12c128.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.298514.1%12 W · 73 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e7c…9d28backed No75c124.93$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa5…3c24backed No40c124.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed No53c110.34$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.895625%14 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes40c110$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710f…32e9backed No56c108.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…1377backed Yes26c105.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick19cpaid+163.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cc8…a1b2backed Yes21c100.38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+139%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe164…340bbacked No37c95.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.31714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-69.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes64c90.69$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9565623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ef…e955backed No45c89.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43f8…2903backed No59c88.15$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.391010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-80.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c9…c6d9backed No58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a54…e581backed Yes59c84.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.48145.7%37 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68e5…1457backed No47c78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2256…b932backed Yes16c71.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.922714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb5…ff4bbacked No62c70.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d7…19c4backed No38c69.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.582536%9 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No61c67.32$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.141163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.65345.3%24 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+56.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7d6…9681backed Yes39c56.29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+154.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb562…f8c3backed Yes25c53.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+297.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c69…b8ebbacked No50c51.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-71.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7566…ca02backed No79c50.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde14…f8d8backed No80c50.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01ba…929fbacked No39c50.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.773321.2%7 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58822.7%20 W · 68 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8e…1d33backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52010%2 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-68.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeeb4…21c1backed No78c49.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c49.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9942628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x17c9…4c2abacked Yes49c49.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb148…63f4backed No46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed Yes54c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.612745.7%58 W · 69 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa403…9cabbacked Yes67c39.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7c…1fb5backed No56c37.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.09520%1 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.46per pick66cpaid-73.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a86…243dbacked Yes56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked No72c32.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6316319%31 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes63c31.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.833948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98f…6a3fbacked No75c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No76c26.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.411050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d30…cd30backed Yes49c26.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4542…cba2backed Yes42c25.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4083…363fbacked Yes42c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9019…42e0backed No79c24.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes42c24.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2920717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da5…8c70backed No46c22.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Yes53c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes61c20.01$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8532415.7%51 W · 273 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed Yes64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.