Tweets · resolved market
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66ff333bd157fc9581ae933a6fda0c511c7bb1ed1eca3bace62c6563f5107e71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 48c | 4,197$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.82 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 3c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 3,673$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 48c | 3,142$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 49c | 1,713$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 38c | 1,515$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.68 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 76c | 1,063$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…5834backed No | 2c | 1,030$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda3…98edbacked Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 45c | 965.8$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.61 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 57c | 911.85$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 42c | 790.47$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.67 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…2575backed No | 37c | 717.91$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 57c | 673.56$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b1…5a3fbacked No | 55c | 639.81$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 49c | 602.96$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.9 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 48c | 594.3$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.38 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 47c | 494.14$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.12 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…6d1abacked No | 45c | 465$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 49c | 445.88$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.74 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 50c | 438.36$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.26 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 62c | 359.6$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…a041backed No | 45c | 310$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 11c | 265.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.36 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 62c | 242$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 41c | 235.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 235.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.96 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf378…a3c9backed No | 45c | 225$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 56c | 220.32$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 15c | 201.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.52 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 47c | 196.81$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…84cdbacked No | 44c | 196.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…5a02backed Yes | 64c | 180$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 36c | 176.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…014bbacked No | 52c | 173$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 51c | 166.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 62c | 162.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 64c | 160.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed No | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed No | 79c | 150.73$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…65cdbacked No | 54c | 147.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fd…2b74backed No | 38c | 140.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed Yes | 38c | 134.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…b73abacked No | 44c | 133.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…73e9backed Yes | 15c | 129.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +584.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 12c | 128.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.29 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…9d28backed No | 75c | 124.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa5…3c24backed No | 40c | 124.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed No | 53c | 110.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710f…32e9backed No | 56c | 108.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed Yes | 26c | 105.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +163.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…a1b2backed Yes | 21c | 100.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +139%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…340bbacked No | 37c | 95.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 64c | 90.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…e955backed No | 45c | 89.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed No | 59c | 88.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c9…c6d9backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 59c | 84.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…1457backed No | 47c | 78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…b932backed Yes | 16c | 71.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb5…ff4bbacked No | 62c | 70.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed No | 38c | 69.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 61c | 67.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d6…9681backed Yes | 39c | 56.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb562…f8c3backed Yes | 25c | 53.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +297.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c69…b8ebbacked No | 50c | 51.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7566…ca02backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde14…f8d8backed No | 80c | 50.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…929fbacked No | 39c | 50.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…4c2abacked Yes | 49c | 49.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb148…63f4backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa403…9cabbacked Yes | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…1fb5backed No | 56c | 37.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 66cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a86…243dbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked No | 72c | 32.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 63c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98f…6a3fbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 76c | 26.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d30…cd30backed Yes | 49c | 26.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4542…cba2backed Yes | 42c | 25.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…42e0backed No | 79c | 24.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 42c | 24.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…8c70backed No | 46c | 22.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.