Movies · resolved market
Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-11m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9501b9a9f9e8f40f92706fa19298349863e6a6167ab8a4553fa3d665e7f47c90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 25c | 4,713$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.3 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 24c | 3,845$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.15 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 3,600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed Yes | 29c | 2,630$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 74c | 2,428$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.39 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 74c | 1,774$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.17 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,163$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.26 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed No | 70c | 1,161$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 716.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 683.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 29c | 500$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.54 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 28c | 439$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 394$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 71c | 329.36$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 72c | 326.87$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 32c | 310.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 295$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 52c | 291.38$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 32c | 220.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 28c | 211$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed Yes | 15c | 205.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…f6e5backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Yes | 28c | 166.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…32e3backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 19c | 141.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c9…c6d9backed No | 73c | 137.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 135$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 76c | 132.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Yes | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 24c | 105.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…f0afbacked Yes | 27c | 89.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +151.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 30c | 82.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…1da1backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 79.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed Yes | 52c | 76.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 24c | 71.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 49c | 56.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 26c | 50.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x285d…c8e9backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…235cbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b26…6900backed Yes | 30c | 39.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…fc8bbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…16acbacked No | 80c | 22.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-11m?this page
- Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-13m?Yes won
- Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $9m?No won
- Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $13m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.