Movies · resolved market
Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-13m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c5135bf65b334a0c97a4432c8ba24e4a1fb0afd26d389f6018a5fa6cd58b59b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 69c | 4,866$3,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.14 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 59c | 4,630$2,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.6 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 42c | 2,766$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.91 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 65c | 2,555$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 2,009$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…94b6backed Yes | 50c | 1,600$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 27c | 1,536$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.3 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 51c | 1,229$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.86 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 77c | 777.71$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.71 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 775$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.25 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb54d…8ac6backed Yes | 64c | 765.63$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 75c | 708.33$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.65 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 44c | 541$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.96 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 61c | 510$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.94 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 36c | 457.97$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 427.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 62c | 404.63$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.18 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 29c | 341$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.37 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…5a2ebacked Yes | 50c | 330$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 76c | 263.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 8c | 225.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 60c | 202$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 33c | 156.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 53c | 155.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c9…c6d9backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2477…207cbacked Yes | 76c | 146.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…f0afbacked Yes | 69c | 106$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +151.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 42c | 95.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…4083backed Yes | 48c | 89.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 71c | 87.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…d31abacked Yes | 46c | 87.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…105dbacked Yes | 65c | 84.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 80.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 28c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 57.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 30c | 43.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…16acbacked Yes | 63c | 35.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…eddbbacked Yes | 75c | 34.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Yes | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…03b1backed Yes | 60c | 25.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-13m?this page
- Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-11m?No won
- Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $9m?No won
- Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $13m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.