Movies · resolved market
Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $13m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfa439dbf369ac1902a6e5e1076ef8b886220f2e46aca4f12ee1a0dd06dc0f9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 16c | 12,182$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.49 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…d31abacked Yes | 1c | 5,599$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…a660backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…fc8bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,390$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,260$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 73c | 1,880$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.05 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,327$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b05…8dacbacked Yes | 10c | 1,212$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 24c | 1,144$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked No | 77c | 1,037$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.88 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 817$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.38 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…85f0backed Yes | 34c | 754.1$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 79c | 741.98$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.44 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 24c | 716.06$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.09 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 6c | 714.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 21c | 700$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 73c | 685$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.11 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 6c | 650$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 27c | 647.56$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.6 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ab…300abacked Yes | 4c | 522.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…8917backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 39c | 403.24$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 5c | 401.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 5c | 399.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 391.31$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c9…c6d9backed Yes | 19c | 376.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 29c | 189.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 176$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 13c | 170.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 76c | 161.12$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…32c2backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…3de9backed Yes | 31c | 147$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…45cdbacked Yes | 14c | 138.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 133.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 41c | 108.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae2…6789backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed No | 67c | 86.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…fa11backed No | 78c | 82.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…03b1backed Yes | 32c | 47.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…a74bbacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 36.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $13m?this page
- Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-13m?Yes won
- Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-11m?No won
- Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $9m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.