Movies · resolved market
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23-26m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd76ec07d395a8a271a7bacc31a5421538b6e2e2eb6393b67f188b884ac474aad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 10,392$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 10c | 3,412$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.7 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 27c | 2,723$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.21 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 18c | 2,249$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.22 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,615$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 17c | 1,168$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 28c | 1,124$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.64 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.62 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c1…7ac6backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 3c | 850$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 13c | 822$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 75c | 548.72$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 69c | 434.58$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.51 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 75c | 346.54$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 12c | 333.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…7d76backed Yes | 20c | 293.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 11c | 208.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 24c | 161.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 13c | 156.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 17c | 137.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 29c | 129$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 119.43$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 28c | 101.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 38c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…e58bbacked Yes | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 64.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 32c | 62.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…4c23backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23-26m?this page
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20-23m?Yes won
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $26-29m?No won
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m?No won
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $29m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.