Movies · resolved market
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7335a313c3d4bfda157fcaed196be97720dd9a93a99b603550264782f6a8bdbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 10c | 13,448$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.83 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 30c | 8,921$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.65 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 32c | 6,941$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.08 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 20c | 4,874$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.21 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,886$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 64c | 3,373$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.28 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 13c | 3,324$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.68 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 8c | 3,133$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.43 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 2,800$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 2,768$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 72c | 2,358$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.92 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 12c | 2,346$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.69 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 4c | 1,957$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 7c | 1,682$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,495$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 41c | 1,355$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.03 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 7c | 1,114$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 20c | 1,096$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.17 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 32c | 761.04$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.96 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…7d46backed Yes | 11c | 728.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 75c | 659$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 462.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 63c | 459.25$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 22c | 450.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 73c | 450.33$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 72c | 357.55$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.96 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 33c | 333$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 329.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 31c | 280$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 18c | 267$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 256.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 23c | 176.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 28c | 111$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed No | 80c | 107$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 45c | 86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 76c | 68.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7a…c772backed No | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…f01abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed Yes | 37c | 30.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed No | 74c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m?this page
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20-23m?Yes won
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23-26m?No won
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $26-29m?No won
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $29m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.