Movies · resolved market
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $29m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7ed038d058bfa276cebe40292eedc41d6628cb21c096349750dfed4e9e74945
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 9,312$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…e4ccbacked Yes | 4c | 6,213$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 3c | 3,770$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…c66abacked Yes | 2c | 3,389$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,539$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 9c | 1,732$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.74 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 1c | 1,115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…7d76backed Yes | 10c | 1,023$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 4c | 905.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 9c | 650$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 533$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 10c | 480$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…95e6backed Yes | 5c | 437.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b9…f055backed Yes | 8c | 316$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 7c | 282.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a8…4902backed Yes | 8c | 273.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes | 15c | 230$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 5c | 182.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $29m?this page
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20-23m?Yes won
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23-26m?No won
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $26-29m?No won
- Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.