Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x997b435aeeb8a9b81a4d1374510529b915908639193e1f84f37267c19794c3f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $227,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcc0…4353backed Yes | 19c | 11,921$2,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,253.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 17c | 11,140$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.62 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 10,500$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.23 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 13c | 10,250$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 26c | 8,755$2,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,287.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked Yes | 6c | 6,791$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes | 28c | 5,009$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes | 13c | 4,877$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 12c | 4,800$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed No | 69c | 4,703$3,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4974…ea15backed Yes | 18c | 4,411$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed No | 70c | 3,829$2,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 78c | 3,230$2,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.3 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 22c | 3,000$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.88 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 18c | 2,471$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.79 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 78c | 2,294$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 8c | 2,291$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 1c | 2,155$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 18c | 2,004$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.64 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,900$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,837$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 30c | 1,829$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 7c | 1,648$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,636$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb753…f859backed Yes | 26c | 1,562$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,359$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 5c | 1,184$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,158$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce0…0c1cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,061$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…4d68backed Yes | 24c | 1,060$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…7de9backed Yes | 17c | 1,036$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e07…c01abacked Yes | 18c | 1,035$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,021$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cca…1a17backed Yes | 35c | 1,005$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 77c | 967.72$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed No | 74c | 931.47$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed Yes | 23c | 882.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 20c | 792.06$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed Yes | 20c | 755.65$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 685.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 665.49$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 15c | 652.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e5…4d37backed Yes | 19c | 636.78$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…7cffbacked Yes | 16c | 633.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 631.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5f…453abacked Yes | 16c | 626.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 80c | 600.47$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…dfd1backed Yes | 17c | 589.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 19c | 585.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…c185backed No | 77c | 570.56$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 79c | 560.62$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 16c | 543.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…b294backed No | 61c | 462.86$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…edcabacked Yes | 14c | 442.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 14c | 440.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…c8e7backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 16c | 408.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…6306backed No | 78c | 392.79$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…e0ebbacked No | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 22c | 372.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…fc92backed Yes | 14c | 367.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…1b89backed Yes | 12c | 326.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6059…2f6ebacked Yes | 22c | 317.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…ca8dbacked No | 77c | 304.18$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe304…3f81backed Yes | 17c | 291.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa984…088ebacked Yes | 18c | 282.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…95e6backed No | 80c | 280$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 273.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfc…4194backed Yes | 24c | 266.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…db3abacked Yes | 21c | 262.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 17c | 261.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1533…48b6backed No | 77c | 261.66$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…719ebacked Yes | 6c | 256.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…9917backed Yes | 15c | 250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked Yes | 26c | 231.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 11c | 215.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 212.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 23c | 196.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…546fbacked Yes | 13c | 187.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 10c | 165.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…3152backed Yes | 20c | 149.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916b…8d15backed Yes | 14c | 147.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…0f7cbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca80…316abacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…d636backed No | 78c | 115.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…79ebbacked Yes | 21c | 112.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c3…7733backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…0874backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd151…2fd4backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…cf3cbacked Yes | 22c | 104$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…0413backed Yes | 11c | 100.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…8b52backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.