Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe63332b05d45de8f89340ed0742426b29e8a86207f6c7bcd0107fad9e97450bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $899,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $524,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $899,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 4c | 37,567$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.7 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 6c | 37,050$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.54 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…d764backed Yes | 5c | 36,981$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.92 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 32,383$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.59 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 5c | 23,864$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.07 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 3c | 17,606$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.81 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 4c | 17,310$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.34 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 4c | 13,865$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.52 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 12,514$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 1c | 12,093$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.85 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 6c | 11,807$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.72 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…c779backed Yes | 4c | 11,377$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 4c | 10,409$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.48 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…76ebbacked Yes | 3c | 10,200$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.25 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 9c | 10,198$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.63 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…d57abacked Yes | 17c | 10,066$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 9,884$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.09 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd434…93bbbacked Yes | 1c | 9,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6821…5795backed Yes | 7c | 8,500$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 8,006$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…5484backed Yes | 7c | 8,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…e564backed Yes | 6c | 7,500$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…d181backed Yes | 7c | 7,400$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.4 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…8008backed Yes | 7c | 7,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…29aebacked Yes | 6c | 7,000$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…7004backed Yes | 1c | 6,673$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 7c | 5,915$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.62 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 15c | 5,814$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.06 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c3…c432backed Yes | 2c | 5,383$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 9c | 5,023$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.01 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 4,570$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.83 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…80c9backed Yes | 1c | 4,534$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 4c | 4,449$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.64 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…3c01backed Yes | 1c | 4,279$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 3c | 4,250$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876a…9b82backed Yes | 11c | 4,126$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,588$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.07 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 9c | 3,503$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 5c | 3,482$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…de3dbacked Yes | 11c | 3,329$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,300$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.29 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 6c | 3,186$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.09 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 3,103$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 9c | 2,984$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.43 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a90…abc3backed Yes | 11c | 2,864$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…7411backed Yes | 6c | 2,851$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x638a…49f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,801$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 2,798$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.43 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,768$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.47 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,717$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a3…3310backed Yes | 9c | 2,653$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 19c | 2,625$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d44…c828backed Yes | 6c | 2,516$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,347$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ef9abacked Yes | 11c | 2,328$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 2,299$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…73a8backed Yes | 20c | 2,297$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.72 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 6c | 2,222$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,147$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 8c | 2,122$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.25 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 1c | 2,073$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 9c | 2,065$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 2,034$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 7c | 2,026$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.25 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.56 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…a498backed Yes | 6c | 1,952$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 7c | 1,921$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.62 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aea…6617backed Yes | 5c | 1,903$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 15c | 1,885$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…22dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,884$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8405backed Yes | 12c | 1,814$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 18c | 1,744$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 2c | 1,632$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,626$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 1,614$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 2c | 1,545$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…48f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,520$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 18cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 4c | 1,485$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6b…fdbbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,421$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…c51abacked Yes | 3c | 1,418$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 3c | 1,323$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…d78abacked Yes | 8c | 1,306$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…f696backed Yes | 1c | 1,297$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9bd9backed Yes | 12c | 1,173$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 7c | 1,169$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…7d3ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,142$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,135$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 9c | 1,131$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 12c | 1,131$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.39 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,130$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6074…965bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,075$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f5…ab22backed Yes | 3c | 1,072$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 21c | 1,054$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,053$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bd…3f74backed Yes | 10c | 1,042$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30?this page
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 23–30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.