Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cbd28a6fac43d623030e6108382f5cd2f7f86a8752ff58882170801b88505a5

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $194,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $105,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,730 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xccdc…567bbacked Yes	1c	20,472$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.01	227	10.1%23 W · 204 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	-35%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde71…e7b6backed Yes	1c	12,763$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	0c	10,002$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…8f73backed Yes	1c	8,236$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.18	126	23%29 W · 97 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdea…997dbacked Yes	1c	8,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,540$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.1	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	4,500$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.5	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	4,216$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.12	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	1c	3,310$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.01	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes	1c	3,306$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.45	39	2.6%1 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-91.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked Yes	1c	3,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.17	67	11.9%8 W · 59 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	-32%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	3c	2,100$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1734…ddd4backed Yes	8c	2,000$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.2	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes	4c	1,691$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.08	99	14.1%14 W · 85 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-61%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c19…e0d7backed Yes	1c	1,486$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	2c	1,382$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.33	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd596…76ebbacked Yes	2c	1,300$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.95	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46e4…51debacked Yes	10c	1,179$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+53.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x642b…abccbacked Yes	8c	1,009$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…abc3backed Yes	3c	1,000$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.58	64	6.3%4 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	9c	999.99$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes	12c	912.23$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.25	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	882.79$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.37	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes	10c	839.9$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d97…3078backed Yes	6c	810.83$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-63%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes	11c	800$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	98	11.2%11 W · 87 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd3…f0efbacked Yes	10c	800$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	5c	700$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes	2c	680.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	64	40.6%26 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+83.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	7c	618.08$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.63	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae8…479fbacked Yes	12c	601.57$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	92	17.4%16 W · 76 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	555.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee1a…b41cbacked Yes	9c	534.89$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	9cpaid	+58.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda10…ad11backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes	4c	499.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes	5c	499.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	131	26.7%35 W · 96 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked Yes	10c	499.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes	6c	492.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4480…b56dbacked Yes	3c	489.46$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2915…6669backed Yes	5c	351.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f2…376dbacked Yes	10c	350$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ad…04a8backed Yes	9c	333.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe9f…b862backed Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d02…220abacked Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	84	14.3%12 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6554…bbd6backed Yes	12c	297.46$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	39	20.5%8 W · 31 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes	11c	273$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.03	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58ff…2e8cbacked Yes	9c	250.26$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.46	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a17…0389backed Yes	12c	250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb1…f77bbacked Yes	9c	233.33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-54%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes	11c	233.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb6…773dbacked Yes	10c	202.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.71	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes	8c	200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	347	14.7%51 W · 296 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	88	22.7%20 W · 68 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd23…288ebacked Yes	10c	172.4$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b89…e708backed Yes	7c	168.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	100	8%8 W · 92 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1106…a85abacked Yes	7c	158.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	20cpaid	-78.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x542b…dcf3backed Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed Yes	7c	137.68$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	8.8%5 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…f2f2backed Yes	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a6…321abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	78c	45.45$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30?this page
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30?No won
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30?Yes won
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30?No won
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30?No won
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30?No won
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 23–30?No won
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 23–30?No won
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30?No won
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 23–30?No won
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30?No won
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 23–30?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event