Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ccfb4945a34f39043144dfc2ac0ac340228aa6cd62d348357115c060f5a6580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $432,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $230,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $432,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 58,363$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.49 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 38,508$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.75 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…4e56backed Yes | 0c | 20,365$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 7,651$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 6,457$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 18c | 6,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 5,887$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.09 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 7c | 5,877$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.31 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 5,467$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 8c | 5,199$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.26 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 4c | 4,958$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.62 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 10c | 4,889$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.07 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,623$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.16 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 17c | 3,994$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.02 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 80c | 3,739$2,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.76 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 2c | 3,622$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 3,361$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.14 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 2c | 3,352$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 3,269$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 3,162$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Yes | 2c | 3,010$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…91e9backed Yes | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 1c | 2,796$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,627$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 4c | 2,575$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…ef0dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,505$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.88 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 2,261$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.33 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 22c | 2,238$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed No | 76c | 2,191$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.44 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.82 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 73c | 2,000$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8f…25a7backed Yes | 17c | 1,995$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 1,993$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 2c | 1,950$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,928$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.4 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 10c | 1,917$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 1c | 1,802$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 13c | 1,733$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.95 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240c…5b34backed Yes | 8c | 1,535$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +84%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,517$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.77 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 1c | 1,468$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,444$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 5c | 1,375$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 75c | 1,327$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.65 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6b…fdbbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,300$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 19c | 1,273$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.34 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…e0d7backed Yes | 7c | 1,270$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 24c | 1,221$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.37 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,056$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 24c | 1,042$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 24c | 949.73$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.08 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 22c | 942.7$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.84 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 25c | 933.38$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 5c | 914.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed No | 77c | 893.41$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.78 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…7c23backed Yes | 18c | 882.12$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.34 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc6…0522backed Yes | 20c | 810.08$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +147.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 13c | 808$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.02 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 21c | 800$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 29c | 749.58$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.41 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 13c | 700$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 15c | 699.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876a…9b82backed Yes | 27c | 693.2$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 686$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 15c | 671.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e4…51debacked Yes | 23c | 649.23$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 2c | 647.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aea…6617backed Yes | 20c | 637$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…2a64backed Yes | 17c | 630$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ef9abacked Yes | 19c | 626.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 24c | 601.27$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…e4f0backed Yes | 3c | 581.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…3c01backed Yes | 25c | 520$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 24c | 505.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 18c | 499.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…10ebbacked Yes | 30c | 481.47$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…3078backed Yes | 17c | 477.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 15c | 473.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 14c | 462.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81a…20b2backed Yes | 20c | 440.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ad…04a8backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 21c | 427.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…8019backed Yes | 16c | 417.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 17c | 415.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 20c | 405.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6faa…5a5bbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…2e8cbacked No | 76c | 394.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…cef8backed Yes | 23c | 391.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 20c | 379.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 27c | 379.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1422…8c9ebacked Yes | 27c | 366.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 23–30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.