Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ff92ba4e9f141866343c632fac573fd0ef3c06a244bc0cf53c87eaecec0a4cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $502,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $540,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $502,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 332 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 4c | 48,765$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.7 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 40c | 13,056$5,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,860.49 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 76c | 9,137$6,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,970.81 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 60c | 8,259$4,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,270.26 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 23c | 7,021$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.26 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 14c | 5,759$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,946.51 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876a…9b82backed Yes | 58c | 5,299$3,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed No | 3c | 5,041$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.77 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aeb…95d2backed Yes | 61c | 4,913$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 34c | 4,612$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.08 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 53c | 4,405$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.66 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa0…b6d8backed Yes | 69c | 4,230$2,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 27c | 3,280$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.22 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…c779backed Yes | 20c | 2,802$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 67c | 2,436$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.31 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…7411backed Yes | 60c | 2,401$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 53c | 2,295$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.28 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 31c | 2,266$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.95 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 18c | 2,213$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.94 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 2c | 2,175$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8405backed Yes | 64c | 2,169$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.66 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 51c | 2,166$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.68 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 62c | 2,148$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.3 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.08 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 1,965$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.43 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 1,913$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.59 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 34c | 1,845$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.28 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Yes | 35c | 1,746$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 68c | 1,731$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.77 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…ff0abacked Yes | 15c | 1,730$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,663$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 49c | 1,541$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.75 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6b…fdbbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,539$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked No | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked No | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…7b78backed Yes | 75c | 1,445$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,434$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.3 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 12c | 1,309$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.22 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…b05abacked Yes | 79c | 1,265$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 53c | 1,232$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.82 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 48c | 1,196$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.88 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 50c | 1,103$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.59 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 19c | 1,066$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.87 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed No | 8c | 1,060$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 6c | 1,035$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 36c | 1,023$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.04 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 44c | 1,018$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.48 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 26c | 1,006$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.83 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 11c | 1,005$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.38 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.88 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 992.82$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.63 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 982.37$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.4 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…d78abacked Yes | 53c | 960.32$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 22c | 956.42$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.6 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 37c | 916.46$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.1 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ef9abacked Yes | 27c | 908.93$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.66 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cd…4e7fbacked Yes | 18c | 851.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d61…4855backed Yes | 22c | 829.3$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26a…f740backed Yes | 35c | 820.7$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.51 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 11c | 803.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.28 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a0…093bbacked Yes | 38c | 803.27$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 24c | 767.01$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.71 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 17c | 752.94$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.94 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 32c | 736.5$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.7 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 2c | 715.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4fddbacked Yes | 77c | 714.82$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.33 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 31c | 700.77$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.9 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 4c | 700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 41c | 699.99$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 31c | 699.97$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…5a71backed Yes | 38c | 683.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.69 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…fed9backed No | 7c | 678.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…8fedbacked Yes | 72c | 660.32$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.13 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes | 72c | 648.04$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.04 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…e22ebacked Yes | 34c | 640.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.09 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 17c | 637.35$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x638a…49f4backed Yes | 74c | 637.29$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 35c | 629.94$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.46 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 38c | 628.23$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.39 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 43c | 597.75$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.6 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 44c | 584.3$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.3 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes | 50c | 558.67$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.72 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…7d3ebacked Yes | 48c | 534.78$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…0fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 532.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.85 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 49c | 525.21$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.51 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…5688backed No | 2c | 524.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66d…f36fbacked Yes | 10c | 517.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked No | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 14c | 499.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.11 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 30c | 458.8$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31be…c9debacked Yes | 33c | 440.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 67c | 421.02$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 73c | 412.63$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.39 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1b…c413backed Yes | 36c | 409.38$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd2…a402backed Yes | 69c | 407.51$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 35c | 384.86$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.52 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 23–30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.