Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 23–30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b7f551c8fa663009d1ebd6c45884e6c0099132de110b3cff0c0f5a2af1eb5a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $531,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $531,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 45,418$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.74 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 31,520$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…d764backed Yes | 3c | 31,337$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af8…21b0backed Yes | 1c | 31,235$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 1c | 30,199$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.21 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 1c | 18,869$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.7 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…c779backed Yes | 2c | 10,759$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 1c | 10,530$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.57 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 8,761$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 8,324$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 6,097$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 5,750$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…d977backed Yes | 2c | 5,718$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,356$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 0c | 5,191$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,001$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…4900backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 1c | 4,962$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 4,660$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,499$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…c8d5backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…76ebbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…de3dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,360$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…edccbacked Yes | 3c | 3,334$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 0c | 3,299$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…655fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,576$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 3c | 2,556$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…73a8backed Yes | 14c | 2,525$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…2786backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 3c | 2,368$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…3c01backed Yes | 5c | 2,070$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8260…b3e1backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff1…8fc8backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.08 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…ac95backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,955$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 1c | 1,905$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,893$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 4c | 1,858$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,747$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 3c | 1,731$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 6c | 1,672$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.35 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a2…dba3backed Yes | 3c | 1,664$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…8adfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe81a…20b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,409$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ef9abacked Yes | 5c | 1,374$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…7411backed Yes | 6c | 1,255$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a0…093bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,142$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc14…6d0cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,131$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,123$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…a498backed Yes | 2c | 1,108$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 3c | 1,076$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 1c | 1,031$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2915…6669backed Yes | 3c | 1,030$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 3c | 940.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 102 | 7.8%8 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked Yes | 2c | 937.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…c51abacked Yes | 1c | 886.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…c8fbbacked Yes | 1c | 820.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876a…9b82backed Yes | 1c | 809.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 2c | 803.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 3c | 787.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 2c | 757.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…abccbacked Yes | 1c | 704.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 3c | 700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 3c | 681.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 9c | 652.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…e22ebacked Yes | 2c | 600.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bd…3f74backed Yes | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…2e8cbacked Yes | 4c | 511.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 3c | 499.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…2ecfbacked Yes | 7c | 490.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4582…4fd0backed Yes | 3c | 461.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 3c | 417.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…9f00backed Yes | 2c | 416.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 5c | 330.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80f…428fbacked Yes | 4c | 328.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…1837backed Yes | 5c | 325.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…0c9abacked Yes | 7c | 300.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 3c | 299.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 4c | 260$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…692abacked Yes | 5c | 191.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 9c | 142.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…53ecbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 23–30?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 23–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.