TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6fe2…f9a3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Tweets at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT3122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-53.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+100%+$10
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+49.5%+$148.37
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+120.2%+$168.34
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.49
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon tweet 245–259 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 230–244 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+106.7%+$226.18
Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$95
Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$130
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$314
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+38.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$391.03
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+353.2%+$706.36
Will Han Duck-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$325
Will the Progressive Reform Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$550
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$3,975Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,975
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$950Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+171%+$1,624.69
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$202.75
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+225.8%+$304.77
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+130.2%+$325.4
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+43.1%+$21.53
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+69.8%+$69.78
All 16 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on June 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+98.9%+$49.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 12, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.