Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dd95aeb04e278050afe01cd7e0b34eb9c27d751e97f857051cdd68e23d2fd4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,054$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 2c | 1,358$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 7c | 1,313$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 9c | 1,003$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 8c | 807.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 8c | 675$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…a0efbacked Yes | 12c | 581.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 519.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…ef1abacked Yes | 4c | 505.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 3c | 501.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 20c | 439.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 426$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe38…4207backed Yes | 9c | 363.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 347.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 8c | 267$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6b…6a48backed Yes | 8c | 169.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca98…7540backed Yes | 14c | 125.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0f…7f95backed Yes | 12c | 123.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 13c | 93.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked No | 79c | 61.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 230–244 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 245–259 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–289 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 290–304 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.