Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 275–289 times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f05e6eb7c56ea992f00ebd1726c8fe21c5a43414e5e368e30b94829b46e2ae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…91e9backed Yes | 7c | 5,600$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 76c | 2,246$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.65 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…6f7fbacked Yes | 20c | 2,128$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 20c | 2,094$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.25 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 20c | 1,750$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.8 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,735$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 1,681$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.3 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,570$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.09 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 17c | 1,409$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 76c | 1,262$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.97 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 10c | 1,149$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…626fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,025$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8586…9eb0backed Yes | 30c | 988.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 16c | 898.14$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…3678backed Yes | 21c | 892.92$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 20c | 831$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.13 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 79c | 770.87$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 24c | 752.14$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.91 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 15c | 707.19$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.93 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98a0…1b3dbacked Yes | 15c | 683.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 663.03$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 22c | 622.35$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.94 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…da37backed Yes | 13c | 600$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 546.61$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 28c | 541.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…a7ccbacked Yes | 28c | 539.42$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 15c | 527.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 21c | 500.59$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 20c | 500.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 9c | 500.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…e8e4backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 15c | 500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 20c | 498.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 18c | 481.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 17c | 427.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 31c | 386.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 22c | 384.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…d1bfbacked Yes | 27c | 381.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…f625backed Yes | 8c | 368.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 28c | 362.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 30c | 360$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 17c | 332$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 297.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8405backed Yes | 28c | 291.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 23c | 260.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 13c | 257.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…1884backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 26c | 229.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…771abacked Yes | 18c | 217.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…0986backed Yes | 24c | 211.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes | 18c | 201.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c39…9bdcbacked Yes | 10c | 200.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…a4a1backed Yes | 26c | 191.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…a5f0backed Yes | 27c | 186.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…9bbabacked Yes | 28c | 180.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4fe9backed Yes | 26c | 167.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…cb1ebacked Yes | 23c | 149.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -83%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed No | 74c | 147$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 72c | 135.49$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…9d88backed Yes | 21c | 120.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4233…85f7backed Yes | 17c | 119.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 27c | 115.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 181 | 18.8%34 W · 147 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 16c | 112.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe787…4790backed Yes | 24c | 111.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 14c | 110.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a92…2519backed Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e0…0774backed Yes | 26c | 108.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…41f7backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…a498backed Yes | 10c | 104.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 19c | 102.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…cebebacked Yes | 20c | 102.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 21c | 97.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…b862backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a963backed Yes | 19c | 79.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf2…b4e8backed Yes | 30c | 76.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb41…e394backed Yes | 27c | 73.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…7c23backed Yes | 28c | 72.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…f262backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…ab01backed Yes | 25c | 53.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…18abbacked Yes | 29c | 52.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…7a9bbacked Yes | 24c | 51.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…2662backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…112bbacked Yes | 25c | 41.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028a…fe96backed Yes | 27c | 40.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…f8bcbacked No | 75c | 22.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 72c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeadc…3b33backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 275–289 times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 230–244 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 245–259 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 290–304 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.