Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cab539b7797b6b81369042cfb98af27143893385edd3332f0b9442b4f32aefe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $669,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $607,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $669,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 46c | 44,079$20,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,256.19 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 31,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 78c | 30,905$24,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,721.57 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 35c | 23,571$8,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,216.71 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 18c | 17,167$3,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.82 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 40c | 12,857$5,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,092.23 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 3c | 10,810$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.45 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 31c | 10,767$3,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,329.19 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 35c | 10,586$3,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750.82 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 46c | 10,481$4,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,860.37 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 8,387$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.71 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed No | 42c | 8,253$3,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,750.83 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 4c | 8,017$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.88 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 28c | 7,887$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,211.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 13c | 6,228$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.02 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…2a15backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 20c | 5,621$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.96 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 14c | 5,474$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.36 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 30c | 5,130$1,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.62 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,664$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 35c | 4,400$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 47c | 4,239$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.92 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…8fc0backed Yes | 5c | 3,826$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed No | 47c | 3,811$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.74 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 63c | 3,797$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.09 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed Yes | 67c | 3,724$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 19c | 3,537$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.95 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 72c | 3,467$2,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.98 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 28c | 3,205$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.25 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 43c | 3,032$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.7 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 2,985$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.58 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 26c | 2,904$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.71 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 42c | 2,877$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 14c | 2,876$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.51 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 28c | 2,592$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.03 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 11c | 2,500$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 33c | 2,500$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.83 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 50c | 2,413$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 15c | 2,406$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.2 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 11c | 1,915$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.68 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,899$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 6c | 1,837$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f99…c013backed No | 45c | 1,831$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…6e8fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,816$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…e606backed Yes | 71c | 1,790$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,739$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.79 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 1c | 1,738$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98a0…1b3dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,648$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 31c | 1,636$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked No | 79c | 1,570$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.32 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 59c | 1,550$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…773dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,465$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 9c | 1,462$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 22c | 1,264$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.04 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…da37backed No | 41c | 1,259$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.65 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 2c | 1,245$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,228$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.62 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…a74bbacked No | 76c | 1,114$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,029$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…7c23backed Yes | 60c | 1,020$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.69 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 73c | 1,019$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.74 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2e…b7f4backed Yes | 61c | 1,016$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 27c | 987.71$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.33 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 1c | 942.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 52c | 940.2$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.23 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 4c | 918.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 45c | 915.81$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.27 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed No | 80c | 878.48$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.82 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 18c | 870.02$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.77 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 15c | 839.29$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 2c | 836.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked No | 40c | 836.21$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.97 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1e…e382backed Yes | 12c | 834.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 62c | 795.53$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.89 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 14c | 788.87$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 1c | 770$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…cb1ebacked No | 65c | 749.99$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -83%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da3…2f34backed Yes | 55c | 725.4$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 65c | 723.56$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.29 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 13c | 700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 59c | 699.98$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…b287backed Yes | 9c | 694.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…256fbacked Yes | 10c | 694.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…b775backed Yes | 15c | 669.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed No | 60c | 669.76$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.76 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…96edbacked No | 66c | 664.32$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed No | 58c | 642.39$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.8 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 41c | 629.32$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.31 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…713cbacked Yes | 13c | 622.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…ced6backed No | 50c | 622.02$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.13 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed No | 52c | 621.96$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.41 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…cf73backed Yes | 24c | 610.42$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 610$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed No | 53c | 598.75$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.86 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Yes | 16c | 596.25$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.21 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…76ebbacked Yes | 25c | 580$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 14c | 579.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 230–244 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 245–259 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–289 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 290–304 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.