Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 290–304 times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24d370e72d56e33927a2ea8dcb01b0afbe1b4955f2bbebf9e89c255cf9ba5dbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 77c | 13,943$10,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,151.04 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes | 2c | 10,470$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 17c | 6,358$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.56 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…91e9backed Yes | 33c | 6,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,257$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 4,622$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…da37backed Yes | 2c | 3,805$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 5c | 3,685$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.97 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,713$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 6c | 2,544$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 13c | 1,853$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 1c | 1,632$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 1,528$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.99 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 15c | 1,501$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.65 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,459$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 7c | 1,283$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 34c | 1,274$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.22 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 9c | 1,250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 9c | 1,244$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,224$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 1,200$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 2c | 1,132$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 1,011$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…4738backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 5c | 962.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 13c | 927.7$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…626fbacked Yes | 23c | 878.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 702.09$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.16 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 9c | 640.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 32c | 624.22$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.09 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8586…9eb0backed Yes | 33c | 612.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 580.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 7c | 557.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 510.25$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.27 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 21c | 501.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 64c | 465.5$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.58 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 72c | 434.04$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…27ffbacked Yes | 23c | 355.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 31c | 351.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1e…e382backed Yes | 13c | 346.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 5c | 343.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 327.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 25c | 326.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 31c | 324.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…7c23backed Yes | 40c | 304.34$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8405backed Yes | 28c | 296.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 9c | 280.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…e8e4backed Yes | 39c | 259.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 33c | 256.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 16c | 246.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 35c | 243.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…a0adbacked Yes | 25c | 235.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…5e99backed Yes | 5c | 231.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 27c | 223.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26a…f740backed Yes | 41c | 222.52$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 7c | 220$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 14c | 209.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 11c | 177.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f16…4969backed Yes | 29c | 170.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…0986backed Yes | 29c | 170.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca98…7540backed Yes | 10c | 153.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4233…85f7backed Yes | 33c | 152.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 27c | 152.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…a5f0backed Yes | 33c | 151.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…9bbabacked Yes | 33c | 150.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e0…0774backed Yes | 34c | 149.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 145.27$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b8…09cabacked Yes | 34c | 145$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 65c | 144$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 35c | 143.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a92…2519backed Yes | 8c | 139.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…bc6dbacked Yes | 36c | 139.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 19c | 128.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 38c | 122$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked No | 60c | 120.43$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c9…e7fbbacked Yes | 41c | 120.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…41f7backed Yes | 29c | 104.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…98eabacked Yes | 33c | 101.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +358.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 33c | 100.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 181 | 18.8%34 W · 147 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0c…b4bbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…771abacked Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 26c | 96.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…e7a8backed Yes | 30c | 91.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 34c | 90.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 22c | 89.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 66c | 85.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0f…4c38backed Yes | 25c | 80.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked No | 73c | 79.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…9d88backed Yes | 35c | 79.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21cf…c7ecbacked Yes | 33c | 74.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c9…8110backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…f262backed Yes | 30c | 67.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…7ae7backed Yes | 32c | 62.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 290–304 times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 230–244 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 245–259 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–289 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.