Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ab070685d8939def7cc876617fc3a00a4597f900181f32eb2514db139dba933
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $315,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $243,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 7c | 34,398$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.25 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 8c | 16,753$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.46 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 21c | 9,261$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.01 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…da37backed Yes | 3c | 6,027$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.02 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…d1e6backed Yes | 15c | 5,958$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 4c | 5,858$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.82 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 14c | 5,291$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.49 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…2a15backed Yes | 5c | 5,200$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 8c | 5,002$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.04 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 20c | 4,778$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 8c | 4,205$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.11 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d53…6e10backed Yes | 1c | 4,185$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…8b98backed Yes | 40c | 4,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 30c | 2,966$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,908$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 22c | 2,741$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.44 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 10c | 2,661$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.05 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 29c | 2,476$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.32 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,443$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.13 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 2,417$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 67c | 2,385$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.87 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,360$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 9c | 2,333$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.49 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,321$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 4c | 2,300$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 25c | 2,153$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.48 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…8b4fbacked Yes | 28c | 2,141$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 26c | 2,000$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.47 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 5c | 1,951$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 8c | 1,909$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.72 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked Yes | 27c | 1,605$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 4c | 1,565$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 8c | 1,485$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…c293backed Yes | 9c | 1,456$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 4c | 1,424$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,392$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,345$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.7 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 41c | 1,326$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.61 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 26c | 1,312$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.58 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 20c | 1,246$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.38 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 1c | 1,229$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 17c | 1,204$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.94 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…ced6backed Yes | 25c | 1,106$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 10c | 1,073$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 1,032$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.48 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1e…e382backed Yes | 16c | 1,006$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 980.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 31c | 950.47$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 37c | 921.41$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.91 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 10c | 862.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 28c | 856.1$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.97 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38f…d33ebacked Yes | 4c | 846.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…5f03backed Yes | 36c | 836.66$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 27c | 823.25$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.48 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 29c | 805.43$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.26 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked No | 79c | 800$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 14c | 775.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8586…9eb0backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0683…a935backed Yes | 42c | 729.54$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 21c | 702.05$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 66c | 689.3$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.36 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…b775backed Yes | 46c | 646.77$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 24c | 636.79$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.97 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Yes | 43c | 635.66$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b32…834cbacked Yes | 32c | 619.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ef9abacked Yes | 38c | 618.59$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.77 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…576ebacked Yes | 26c | 618.52$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 614.27$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.33 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 35c | 600$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.22 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 3c | 592.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…fb3fbacked Yes | 9c | 545.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 541.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…45e9backed Yes | 19c | 532.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…0986backed Yes | 34c | 522.46$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 33c | 520.8$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.73 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 39c | 518.55$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…809bbacked Yes | 29c | 508.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 33c | 500.59$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.57 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 27c | 500$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 4c | 499.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…626fbacked Yes | 9c | 469.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes | 17c | 463.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 462.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 79c | 450.23$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.34 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…0ff4backed Yes | 4c | 444.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 35c | 430.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 39c | 430.8$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.93 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…35b1backed No | 77c | 430.4$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 17c | 422.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 25c | 402.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 16c | 391.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 26c | 386$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Yes | 40c | 359.31$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 7c | 355.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 230–244 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 245–259 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–289 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 290–304 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.